These are the tricks for short-term stocks

Chapter 14
Step 55 Judging the Bottom Starting Market
The identification method of the market that is about to start at the bottom:
First, the stock price is not far from the lowest price in history (referring to the past year). There was a heavy volume at the high level, but then it fell all the way, and suddenly stopped falling in the past two or three months. 5 to 10 times the stock price during this period, the stock price rose very little during this period, less than 20%, the 5-day and 0-day moving averages were very flat, and the 30-day moving average was approaching. There was no movement, and it almost fell back to the original place, and even fell below the platform immeasurably. At this time, there was no major negative news for the stock, but there were some positive rumors after the big rise that day.As long as you get out of the form of heavy volume on the low platform and then an immeasurable downward plunge (everyone is losing money during the decline, but the dealer loses a lot and makes a lot of money, and the amount of decline is less than 10 times the volume of the platform), it means that the stock is far from starting. Not far, no more than 0 days, decisively intervene at this time, waiting for the sedan chair to be lifted, what a joy!If you are still not at ease, you can continue to wait and see until the V-shaped reversal of the stock reaches the platform, and you can easily cross it without increasing the amount. It is not too late to follow up at that time, but you will only earn 15% to 20% less.

Second, the stock price is at a high level or near a new high, and then goes sideways for a long time (the market is likely to fall continuously when it is sideways). The trading volume of such stocks increases step by step when they hit such a high price, but they do not let go after reaching a high level. Moreover, the trading volume is decreasing day by day. At the end of the sideways market, the daily turnover rate is actually [-]/[-]/[-]. In the intraday, it is often seen that hundreds of shares are trading up and down for a few cents. At this time, don’t think that the dealer The physical strength is too low or the dealer does not exist.In fact, most of the people who saw the market makers follow up at that time couldn't bear the long-term torture, and either pushed flat or cut off their flesh and left. However, people who came later saw that the stock price was too high, and they didn't dare to intervene.Graphically speaking, the short- and medium-term moving averages have flattened out, and the long-term moving average is about to collide with the short-term moving average. The K-line closes a series of small cross stars or a "T" shape with a long lower shadow line, and sometimes it also appears after opening sharply lower. The situation of quickly pulling back to the platform means that this stock is about to start, and it will inevitably hit another high point.It should be noted that this kind of stock is sometimes risky, that is, near the end of the year or when the report is approaching, the market maker pulls out a wave of heavy volume every day. Yes, it has been falling all the way, everyone thought it was an adjustment, and they kept on holding on to it, or some stock critics strongly recommended it. Intervene when the volume shrinks to the extreme. Once the volume is pushed up for four or five days in a row, there is no need to lick blood from the knife edge.

As shown in the figure below, 600029 stabilized in a sideways trend in 2006 after a long-term decline. During this period, the trading volume increased intermittently. After the market rose, it fell back to the bottom immeasurably, which greatly consumed the confidence of retail investors.Then, after three months of sideways trend, it started to get out of the bottom and start the market.

Move 56 to judge the rising market
The important prediction formulas and methods for short-term masters to judge the rising market are:
First, first predict the possible trading volume throughout the day.The formula is: (240 minutes ÷ the number of minutes from 9:30 in the previous market to the time of reading the market) × existing trading volume (number of shares traded).When using this formula, you should also pay attention: often the earlier the time is, the closer it is to 9:30, the more it will be larger than the actual trading volume of the day.Generally, the trading volume of the first 15 minutes, 30 minutes, and 45 minutes is used to predict the trading volume of the whole day.If it is too early, it will be distorted, because generally the transaction is too large and dense shortly after the opening of the market; if it is too late, the meaning of prediction will be lost.

Second, if the stock price is at a mid-to-low level in form, and the short-term technical indicators are also at a mid-to-low level, pay attention to the following phenomena: It is more likely to increase the amount of funds; the amount of the day can predict the result, generally speaking, the larger the better; you can intervene when the intraday falls, especially when the market falls sharply; If the stock trades sideways in the small fluctuations of the stock price regardless of the intraday rise or fall of the market, once it pulls up, pay attention to decisively intervene at the moment of pulling up.In particular: if there are consecutive large buy orders in the intraday, the time for the stock price to rise will come.By studying and judging the three situations of volume energy, the relationship between stock price and stock index fluctuations, and continuous large buy orders, it is possible to predict that the stock will rise intraday.Based on the above, that is to say: the stock price is at a low-to-medium level, the volume can be significantly enlarged, and among the stocks with continuous large buy orders, there is an opportunity to pull up intraday.Especially if the stock price is far away from the heavy resistance level, there may be greater short-term opportunities.

Third, if the stock price is at a staged mid-to-high level, and short-term technical indicators are also at a mid-to-high level, especially if the stock price is not far from important resistance levels such as previous highs, then pay attention: the volume can be significantly enlarged. If the stock price does not rise but falls , is a signal that needs to be highly vigilant in the market. It does not rule out that someone will ship a large amount of money. This can be judged based on whether there are large sales orders in the market;If you don’t eat the fish head and body, you can give up the fish tail. Although the fish tail can be eaten, it has less meat and more thorns.

Move 57
The identification method for short-term masters to judge the entry into the main rising market:
In a round of market, the market with the largest increase and the longest rising duration is the main rising wave market, which is more similar to the third wave in the wave theory.The main Shenglang market often unfolds quickly after a strong market adjustment. It is the main profit-making stage for investors in a round of market. To participate in the main Shenglang market, one must understand its characteristics.

From the perspective of technical indicators, the main Shenglang market has the following confirmation criteria:
First, when the main Shenglang market starts, the long-short index BBl indicator presents the characteristics of a golden cross. BBI will break through the EBBI indicator from bottom to top.The criterion for judging the effectiveness of the upward trend depends on whether the BBI has a strong upward trend from a position far below the EBBI, or whether the BBI is accidentally higher than the EBBI in the process of bonding with the EBBI after it gradually rises. If the latter, the upward trend is invalid.

Second, the moving average in the main Shenglang market presents a long-term arrangement.It should be noted that the parameters of the moving average need to be reset, and they are set to 3, 13, 7, 21 and 54 days respectively. These moving averages have a better response than the common averages on ordinary software. Sensitivity and trend confirmation, and because few people use it, it is not easy to be used by dealers to cheat lines.

Third, in the main Shenglang market, the MACD indicator has obvious strong characteristics, the DIF line is always above the MACD line, and the two lines often rise in a similar parallel state. Wear the MACD line.At the same time, the red columnar line of the MACD indicator is also in an increasing situation.At this time, it can be confirmed that the main Shenglang market is starting rapidly.

Fourth, the stochastic indicator KDJ has been repeatedly passivated at a high level.In a balanced market or a downtrend, as long as the stochastic indicator enters the oversold zone, you need to be ready to sell; once there is a passivation at a high level, you should resolutely clear the position and ship.However, in the main Shenglang market, the application principle of the stochastic index is just the opposite. When the stochastic index is repeatedly passivated at high levels, investors can firmly hold shares and maximize the profit of the main Shenglang.And when the stochastic indicator enters the overbought zone, investors should be alert to the end of the main Shenglang market.

58 Measures to Judge the True and False of the Rising Market

Changes in stock prices are reflected in ups and downs.The ups and downs we are talking about here do not refer to small fluctuations that rise or fall a little every day, but refer to continuous stage fluctuations in stock prices or large daily fluctuations.In the bottom area, the trading volume of a stock should not be too small, especially the shock amplitude should not be too small. Stocks with small trading volume and small shock amplitude have no elasticity and may have little market outlook potential.A stock often appears at the top of the rising list, and it often appears at the top of the falling list. A stock that dares to rise and fall is a good stock (on the premise that the dealer has not made money). "Dark Horse" deserves special attention.When dealing with a rise, the most important thing is to distinguish whether the stock price is really rising.The following conclusions have been drawn from experience:

(1) If it has never risen before, and the stock price is not positioned at a high level, the possibility of real rise is high.

(2) If the stock price is not far from the dealer's cost, the probability of rising is very high.

(3) If the stock price is low and has been fully consolidated, the probability of rising is greater.

(4) If there is no news, and there is no obvious reason for the rise (mainly referring to positive stimulus), the possibility of real rise is very high. If there is good news in the short term, it will only be a small period.

(5) Those that rise due to sudden positive news may not last long, and those that have already risen hugely may fall soon.

(6) The lack of a rise in trading volume is not true enough (unless there are market-controlled Zhuang stocks that shrink after finishing with a huge amount of shocks, there will not be too many such stocks in the future).

(7) A rise without momentum is a false rise (unless Xiaoyang continues to rise with a moderate increase in volume), and the rise may be false.

(8) For stocks that have risen too fast, unless they have undergone long-term shock consolidation, and the volume and price match is ideal, and have just entered the stage of the dealer's pull-up, be careful of "shock" or reversal.Very fast and "imposing", may be a dark horse in the sprint.

(9) The method of slow rise on the market is often a bit "gimmick" and does not rise for a long time, which is boring, investors are unwilling to participate, and have no confidence in holding shares. The stock price is not high and has experienced sufficient shocks. The one who changes hands may be a big dark horse.

(10) After fully hyping stocks with a huge cumulative rise, once they start to fall, there may be several intermittent rises afterwards. Although sometimes the range is not small, this is just a rebound. It is better to run fast. Have any illusions.

You should have a clear understanding of ups and downs. Rise is not necessarily a good thing. The surge in volume at the top stage, the sudden surge in volume in a single day on the way down, and the surge in a rebound in a balanced market and a bear market may be nothing. "Gospel".Therefore, the rise and fall of stock prices should be viewed dialectically.Rise implies risk, and decline breeds opportunity.Although the rise is an opportunity, if the rise is unreal or the basis for the rise is not solid, and the rise is too large or too rapid, the rise will contain risks, and with the rise, the fall will happen sooner or later, and the chance of the fall will be bigger.First of all, if you only go up but not down, you will accumulate huge risks. The greater the increase, the greater the risk, and the decline can resolve the risk.Secondly, after a decline, the foundation for the rise is solid, and the decline has accumulated energy for the rise.Finally, the stock market is a place for profit-seeking. The greater the decline, the greater the opportunity (assuming it is not a bear market), the dealer will enter the market, and the opportunity to make money will come.

59th move to judge whether the breakthrough is effective
Theoretically speaking, in a rising market, every unfilled entrusted sell order is a resistance, and in a falling market, every unfilled entrusted buy order is a support, but the resistance and support are different in strength.Once the market breaks through successfully, it will generally continue for a period of time. The rise or fall of the stock price requires a driving force. During the development of the market, resistance will be encountered to some extent, but the resistance is sometimes greater and sometimes smaller.Retail investors are a disjointed group, and their mentality varies from person to person. Everyone has their own reasons for buying and selling stocks. Transactions at general prices are random and irregular, but a person who is good at analyzing and summarizing will find that in certain In terms of points, retail investors will invariably line up at a certain price and wait for buying and selling, as if forming a human wall on the market, preventing the market from rising or falling to a greater extent, which is easy to form retail investors. The price level of the "coincidence" behavior is the resistance level and support level that people talk about and try hard to find. Of course, it is also the basis for traders to draw pictures. Depending on the degree of "coincidence", the role of resistance and support levels is also different.Here are the prices that are more likely to form resistance and support levels:

(1) Near historical highs and historical lows.

(2) Near the upper and lower rails of the channel and box.

（3）黄金分割点。如0．382、0．618、0．5等。

(4) Buy and sell signal points issued by technical indicators.Such as golden fork, dead fork, top deviation, bottom deviation, etc.

(5) The transaction-intensive area formed recently (within 3 months) is an important resistance point and support level.

（6）重要的时间之窗（如8、13、21、34等）或者长假期（国庆、春节）前后。

(7) Important integer thresholds (including integers of indices and stock prices).

In addition to the above situations, sudden news will also prompt people to "unanimously" build a "human wall" at a certain price.But to what extent is this "coincidence"? In other words, how should we analyze the strength of resistance and support levels, so as to judge whether these points have been "broken through" and "punctured"?Due to space limitations, we take the first case as an example to analyze the true and false breakthroughs at historical highs during the rising process.

It can be imagined that when the trend of a certain stock is close to the historical high, the market continues to rise, and the "resistance" encountered mainly comes from: ① the pressure of profit-taking of the stocks bought at the bottom; .If the trading volume (turnover rate) was small when the previous historical highs were formed, it means that there are not many bargaining chips trapped, and the resistance to the market's upward attack this time mainly comes from the selling pressure of profit-making chips at the bottom.According to the rules of Zhuanggu's operation, when the stock price reaches a certain height, most of the chips in the hands of retail investors should be shaken out, and the chips in the hands of a few "dead long" retail investors will not cause too much hindrance to the market , so in this case, the previous historical high is easier to be broken.If the trading volume during the formation of previous historical highs was very huge, and in the process of subsequent market development, a large number of bargaining chips locked in high positions have not been cut (you can use the mobile cost analysis method to observe the cuts of retail investors), then the main resistance of this market upward attack It mainly comes from the selling pressure of unwinding. From the psychological analysis of people, the willingness of most retail investors to unwind must be greater than the willingness to take profits.Under the unwinding price, most of the retail investors will "unanimously" form a collective unwinding selling pressure. In this case, the market's upward attack will encounter greater resistance. This historical high is difficult to break through. Investment Investors had better avoid this "dangerous wall" and wait and see.

No matter how big or small the resistance is, once it is really broken through, there will be a market of different sizes, but in many cases, once retail investors kill people after the market breaks through, they will find that the stock price has returned to the original "resistance zone" before long. turn around.It is common for dealers to use false breakthroughs to lure more or less space, just like fake moves on the football field. After shaking the opponent away, they can drive deep into the opponent's penalty area.

60th move to judge the strength of rising momentum
Momentum refers to the spirit and momentum of stock price rises. The real rise of stocks must be a rise with momentum.Under the current circumstances, the opportunity to make money in stocks can only exist in the rise, but there are differences between how much the rise is and how little it is, real rises and false rises, and whether it will continue to rise after the rise or quickly reverse and fall.The stock price rises and rises without momentum, and the dealer's willingness to do more needs to be reflected through the upward momentum.Therefore, studying and judging the rising momentum of stock prices will help us distinguish between real rises and false rises, big rises and small rises, and avoid risks and grasp profit opportunities in a timely manner.Its main features:

(1) Only when the stock price rises and can continue to rise, it has investment value, and it is by no means an occasional change.As the stock price rises, the trading volume continues to increase or moderately increases, and it is not accidental that there is a sudden huge amount in a day or two.

(2) There is strength in rising at key positions, and strength when breaking through, and it is straightforward and not sloppy.

(3) The stock price is close to the 5-day moving average and goes up, the trend is firm, and the angle of the overall trend is greater than 45 degrees.The shape of the band is clear, and the 5-day moving average in the band is a straight line, not a curved curve.

(4) "Resistance" and "pressure" cannot stop the continuous rise of stock prices, and the market makers are determined to go long.

If the stock price rises without momentum, it is just bluffing, which means that the stock may not have a dealer, or the strength of the dealer is not enough, or the fundamentals of individual stocks do not support the stock to go long, and the dealer has no confidence or courage.Stocks without momentum are lifeless on the disk, and their characteristics are: the rise is not sustained enough, the stock price occasionally rises sharply, and the trading volume suddenly increases.The stock price trend is weak, the overall trend is flat, and the angle is less than 30 degrees.The rise in key positions is weak, there are many resistances and pressures, and the market makers have no willingness to go long.Within each rising band, the Yin-Yang K-lines are staggered, the shape of the band is not clear, and the 5-day moving average is flat or curved.The trend of individual stocks was significantly weaker than that of the broader market.

As shown in the figure below, the stock price of 002162 has fallen all the way since it hit a maximum of 19.95 yuan on the day of listing, and fell to a minimum of 3.13 yuan, and the wise and farsighted market maker has already ambushed it.Relying on Disney's unique theme, the stock price began to break through upwards, with 5 daily limits in a row, and the trading volume also increased simultaneously, breaking through the previous highs and transaction-intensive areas in one fell swoop, which formed a strong contrast with the general downturn at the time.Judging from the momentum of the rise, it is very fierce. If the stock price does not rise, it will be fine, but if it rises, it will be majestic and powerful.

No. 61 Judging the duration of the stock price
(End of this chapter)