Mediterranean hegemon

"Dear listeners, this is IBC. Welcome to the current affairs commentary column. I am the host Adriana. Today we are honored to have the famous American economist Professor Schumpeter as our guest. Please help us understand and Analysis of Italy’s First Five-Year Plan and Presidential Decree No. 1…”

"Hello everyone, I am honored to share my understanding of Italian economic affairs in such a form. This is something I rarely encounter in the United States. Economists in the United States usually argue in the academic field and generally do not popularize it with ordinary people. Sexual analysis and evaluation, Italy is completely leading at this level, so I think the atmosphere in Italy is very active..."

Schumpeter smiled and said, "Before discussing whether the president's goal can be achieved, let me tell you about the president's previous predictions. The Italian people may not know it well. The president made two important judgments about the U.S. stock market. The first one was in Dow Jones. At the position of 270-280, it is said that 300 points is the starting point of a new round of bull market in the United States - the latter US stock market really gained momentum after breaking through 300 points, reaching 450 points in one breath; the second judgment is that especially in March this year After June, the president predicted that the U.S. stock market would experience a relatively severe decline. Many people expressed doubts about this judgment. At the beginning, there were so-called 184 investors on Wall Street who thought the president was wrong. You have all seen the result. The U.S. stock market in October After the crash, it experienced a tragic decline, falling from 450 points to 150 points in one breath. Now it has just recovered, but it is still far away from 200 points.

Therefore, judging from this experience, the president's predictions in the past are quite accurate. Although the accuracy in the past does not guarantee the future, at least I have a certain degree of confidence - not confidence in the president's personal goals. My confidence comes from President’s Decree No. 1…”

"Indeed, the current focus of public opinion is still on the overall goal of catching up with the Premier League, but I think Decree No. 1 attracts more attention. This is a very systematic and bold construction goal..." Adriana is of course thinking She was convinced that her man could do anything, but as a radio host, even if she believed blindly, she still had to be strategic, so her guidance was very clever, "Let's listen to the professor's analysis of Decree No. 1! "

Presidential Decree No. 1 is a quite bold bill, almost overthrowing Italy's economic system while maintaining its appearance. There are very few people in favor and many people against it, but Contini pushes forward resolutely:

The so-called Decree No. 1 refers to the abolition of the lira's gold exchange system in the name of the National Development and Reform Commission, and the change from the current simple peg to the U.S. dollar to a basket currency system that integrates the U.S. dollar, pounds, francs, and gold. The U.S. dollar accounts for 55%, pound 25%, franc 10%, gold 10%, realizing the free floating of the local currency - although there is still 10% gold in the basket, it has actually withdrawn from the system. The Italian lira was the first to announce its decoupling from the gold standard. country.

Schumpeter said: "Any law has both positive and negative meanings. It is impossible to have only advantages and no shortcomings. I will try my best to analyze the meaning of this law. The most critical value is the realization of independent pricing of the lira. Previously Although the lira also has a floating exchange rate, it actually implements a strategy of pegging the U.S. dollar. This strategy played a very powerful role in the economic stability stage, but now that it is facing crises and challenges, the previous comfort zone no longer exists... "

"What kind of financial innovation is clearly aimed at causing inflation? Doesn't he know that this is a very dangerous path?" Listening to Schumpeter talking on the radio, little Agnelli was a little unhappy and said to old Agnelli : "Father, if we can double our growth through currency depreciation, that would be too simple."

Old Agnelli ignored him and kept listening. After a while, when the radio station started to broadcast advertisements - Adriana announced the live broadcast manually. Her voice was very discerning. She was asked to do advertisements. Quite a few. Then he said slowly: "I think it's absolutely right to criticize you for being far inferior to little Ciano. You are a bit too arrogant and can't hold your breath. What does it matter to you whether he succeeds or not? If he fails, it will prove that you are better than Ciano." If he succeeds? Does it make you prescient if he fails to achieve his goal?”

These words made little Agnelli feel a little uncomfortable.

Old Agnelli hated the iron and said: "You might as well listen to the analysis and see how we can maximize the utilization of the '100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000-100000ss About to Launch, Seize the Opportunities, and Gain Development. Go fight for profits instead of commenting on other people's dreams here - Fiat is also the second largest conglomerate in Italy. As the successor, don't you even have this magnanimity and magnanimity? "

The old Agnelli was naturally talking about the National Development and Reform Commission’s Order No. 2—to launch a 400 billion lira revival investment plan across the country, claiming to build Italy’s “100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 and 200,000sssssss of billions” project, ordered to be completed within five years.

The so-called "hundred" refers to the construction of 100 secondary and higher professional colleges, more than 90% of which are science and engineering colleges. This is the second step of Contini's vigorous expansion of education;

The so-called "thousand" refers to the construction of 1,000 ordinary secondary schools, each designed to accommodate an average of 800 people - this is a supporting project for the 9-year compulsory education. The current educational system in Italy is 5+4, 5 years of primary school and 4 years of secondary school. The current primary school enrollment rate can basically reach more than 90%. The remaining 10% who do not go to primary school mostly have special reasons - such as hiring a tutor for individual education, or physical or mental defects that are not suitable for studying. It can be considered that primary education is basically universal, but the secondary school enrollment rate is very low, only about 30% can go to secondary school, and the remaining 10% who cannot go to secondary school receive other education. Many people start to follow apprenticeships and then enter factories or other industries. Therefore, Italy's child labor protection regulations only extend to 12 years old. Now after this reform, the age has been raised to 14 years old - those under 14 are not allowed to work and must receive education.

After Capello promoted the 9-year compulsory education bill, he said that he would increase the secondary school rate to more than 70% within 5 years. However, slogans without supporting measures are useless. The expansion of existing schools is limited, and new schools must be built. His original idea was to increase the rate by 2-3 percentage points each year. Unexpectedly, the president directly issued a school construction plan that can accommodate 800,000 people, and the construction plan was also accompanied by a plan for school system reform.

In the past, there were two ways for ordinary high school graduates to continue their studies. One was to go to a higher vocational school, which was basically 3 years - this is what Aida studied, or to go to university preparatory courses, and then prepare to enter university, which takes 2 years. Now, after the school system reform, a 2-year senior high school has been established, and it is planned to gradually become a 3-year senior high school. In this way, there are two ways for high school graduates to continue their studies: first, go to a 3-year secondary vocational school after completing primary high school; second, go to a 2-year higher vocational school after graduating from high school; third, go to a 1-year university preparatory course after graduating from high school and then receive university education.

Overall, the average years of education have been extended and the labor force has been reduced, which is very helpful in reducing the unemployment rate and increasing the employment rate. Just so many technical schools and middle schools need tens of thousands of full-time teachers.

The so-called 10,000 refers to the total mileage of railways and roads newly built and opened to traffic within 5 years to reach 10,000 kilometers. This sounds like a fantasy number, but the Ministry of Transport quickly came up with a detailed plan. The coastal railway and coastal highway connecting Tripoli to Tobruk in Libya alone add up to more than 3,000 kilometers. There are also many other three vertical and three horizontal railways and highways. There is actually a foreshadowing here. It is said that it will be opened to traffic within 5 years, but it is not said that it will be built within these 5 years. In fact, some projects have already started construction, just in time for the completion of the First Five-Year Plan, which naturally counts as performance.

Excluding the more than 3,000 kilometers in Libya, other projects seem much easier. The road and railway around Sicily, the layout of the southern highway network, and the express lines of various industrial cities can all be included in this category.

The so-called trillion is 1 million, that is, within 5 years, 1 million modern houses will be built, with an average living area of ​​100 square meters. Now the most popular house in Italy is a 100 square meter three-bedroom and two-living room house, which is generally no more than 6 stories high, and 7 stories high in special cases. This is the easiest of these goals for me to achieve. Isn’t it easy to build 1 million houses in 5 years? But if you look closely, you will find that the scope is strictly limited. It refers to the construction of 1 million houses in new districts and satellite cities in major cities. The original houses in the city are called old city renovation or shantytown renovation, which are completely different projects.

Chapter 69: A New Era of Catching Up with Premier League and France (4)

In addition to the trillion-dollar projects, there are many more small projects, such as tap water projects, natural gas projects, fire protection projects, sewer renovation projects, old city renovation, and shantytown development in urban municipal construction. The dazzling array of projects is dazzling, so old Agnelli taught his son to listen more to the projects and see what Fiat can get involved in and make money.

These projects can be summed up in one sentence - 400 billion lire projects, comprehensively boosting infrastructure, and turning Italy into a bustling construction site!

A Reuters reporter interviewed Contini with ill intentions: "Mr. President, how do you plan to raise this 400 billion lire, and how do you avoid carrying a heavy burden?"

Contini said generously: "What you see is 400 billion in debt, and what I see is 400 billion in high-quality assets. Which of these invested assets can't create benefits for Italy?"

"You are right about the benefits, but we are very concerned about Italy's fiscal balance and the exchange rate of the lira - this is also a topic of common concern internationally."

"Your understanding of the economy, finance, and deficit is too narrow..." Contini laughed, "European countries used to laugh at Laughing at the Italian railway's unpunctuality, this situation is very rare now. Italy is the most developed place for high-speed railway in Europe. Our transportation efficiency and speed are generally half faster than those of European powers. How much work has this saved? How much economic benefit has it achieved? It is difficult to measure it simply with lira, right?

How was this railway network built? Is it because we have surplus finances to do it? Of course not! Didn't the United Group first borrow money to build it, but the United Group defaulted on the loan? No, because of the construction of the high-speed railway network, the land on both sides of our railway has appreciated, and satellite cities have been built one after another. We have achieved a new balance in other places.

In the past, everyone was crowded into the narrow city. With the rapid commute line, everyone lives in satellite cities in the suburbs. Life is convenient, the environment is satisfactory, and the supporting facilities are convenient. It has so many advantages. To experience the new life in the middle class, you can ask Ask the workers living in Leader New Village, who would still want to live in a dirty and dilapidated slum? According to traditional economists’ ideas, there will be no satellite cities in Italy in another 100 years. Now there are more satellite cities in Italy than in the rest of Europe combined. You have traveled extensively and experienced a lot. Please tell me about the lives of workers in London. Conditions? "

The reporter was speechless and finally muttered: "I'm just worried about not being able to repay the debt."

"Great Italy can create more wealth, and the problems you are worried about do not exist at all!"

The reporter dealt with it, but Finance Minister Volpi came to trouble Contini. Because of the departure from the gold standard and the announcement of the Recovery Act, conservative investors outside were generally not optimistic about the lira. The lira exchange rate was plummeting. It has dropped from 30:1 against the US dollar after the crisis to 40:1, and there is even a further downward trend. Volpi can't sit still. Not to mention that he can't sit still. Even Mussolini feels on pins and needles. Contini quickly came up with a solution.

Contini smiled: "Sir, it doesn't matter. This is what I guided you on purpose. You can exchange your foreign exchange boldly. There are still 3 billion US dollars on the way. He will not let you down..."

"I'm not just worried about the exchange rate, I'm worried about the finances..."

Contini waved his hand quickly: "Listen, don't tell me about the deficit. I already know it. Didn't I tell you? These deficits are healthy and have become tangible and tangible things." Assets are not burdens, but motivations. Even if there are real financial problems, United Group will eventually find a way to cover the situation.”

"What about the exchange rate?"

"Let them be rampant for a few days to vent their emotions. After a few days, I will be responsible for promoting them to ensure that they can't cry anymore! - Cars come in and bicycles go out!"

"How to arrange the finances this year? We passed the new budget in October. We really can't spend money to deal with your engineering projects, but some of them still need to be funded by the state - isn't it good to let the consortium fund the construction of schools?"

"How do these funds come from? The government issues special treasury bonds as much as needed, and United Bank and Trust are the agents, and the United Group that cannot sell them is responsible for underwriting. The reimbursement then promotes the capitalization of the project, such as state-owned railways, which can be transformed After being listed on the Italian Railways, Telecom Italia, Rome-Milan Expressway, Sicilian Expressway, and Turin-Verona Expressway can all be listed. Once listed, won't there be money if the financial statements are solid? ?

Especially for highways, the cash flow should not be too good. Tolls can be collected from vehicles passing by - highways save time and reduce fuel consumption. Shouldn't drivers pay for this? Contini pointed to his head, "You must be flexible here. Today's times are different from the past. We must adapt to achieve rapid growth. According to the economic theory of Britain and France, it is impossible for us to surpass Their...you don't want me to be forced to quit politics and lose everything if I fail to meet my targets, right? "

"No, no, no!" Volpi quickly waved his hand, "How is this possible? United Bank and United Group have helped the central bank and the Ministry of Finance so much before. I will only support them and will not cause trouble."

"That's it, let's issue long-term special government bonds, set the interest rate a little higher, and give the investment class some returns..."

In February, the National Development and Reform Commission approved a large number of new projects to be launched and guided private investment, such as the construction of reserve oil depots. The current capacity is 28 million barrels. Contini ordered the expansion to more than 50 million barrels and required Italy to establish a 360-day strategic fuel reserve. reserves; in addition, basically all industrial production capacities such as railway locomotives, steel, metals, cement, etc. are required to expand production, and vividly express the slogan of "taking steel as the key link and making a comprehensive leap forward", the currency value of the lira has been deducted The door rang for 45 lire to the dollar.

Contini is ready to take action...