New Shun 1730

Historically, one thing that is very relevant to this set of things is the financial crisis that began in 1856 in Europe, fermented in North America, and eventually emerged as a comprehensive financial crisis that swept the world.

And this crisis directly led to many problems. Including war, abolition, two crows, etc., it is almost the first major global crisis in the steam age.

In North America, the crisis originated from the railroad bubble.

The gold rush led to a railroad craze, and capital flowed madly to build railroads. As a result, before the large-scale construction was completed, the gold was dug up, which directly caused the railroad stocks to dive. Banks also collapsed, and railroad companies also collapsed. At that time, the Civil War had not yet been fought, the Homestead Act had not been promulgated, cotton could not be obtained, and pig iron was dumped by Europe. The real industry in the United States was very limited. The gold was dug up, and the railroad bubble collapsed and exploded directly.

In Europe, the crisis... originated from Asia.

The Indian soldiers revolted, and the industry in Manchester, which was supported by India, collapsed directly.

The Taiping Rebellion directly led to a big problem with the price of silver in Europe. The gold and silver currency exchange problem in Europe at that time can be regarded as the beginning of the financial crisis that began to spread in 1956.

That is to say, even though the Qing Dynasty was in such a mess at that time, and the war between the two opium states was about to start, it still relied on the hard work of the people and the foundation of handicrafts, and relied on the amazing ability to absorb silver, it could still be "responsible" for the outbreak of the financial crisis in the whole world.

So much so that Lao Ma sighed: [The impact of the Chinese uprising on Europe is much greater than the impact of all the wars in Russia, the declarations of Italy, and all the secret societies of various factions in Europe]

Because the amount is really too scary.

In 55 years, the European floods, climate change caused problems in the mulberry silk breeding industry, and the Taiping Rebellion caused the comprador group's industrial product sales to be weak, so that in 55 years, "European and American industrial exports to China decreased by 66%, tea imports increased by 63%, and raw silk imports soared by 218%."

Counting opium and counting opium as a surplus or deficit in "normal trade", China still had a huge surplus of 5.7 million pounds equivalent to 18 million taels of silver with Europe and the United States in 55 years.

In that year, the industrial products sent from Europe to China were only 3 million taels.

As for cotton and opium, which were the major imports, they accounted for 11 million taels, but all this money went to India instead of flowing back to Europe - it happened to coincide with the problem of the gold-silver exchange rate, making it more cost-effective to spend silver in India than to return it to China.

In fact, in 1955, Europe and America, within a year, 11.24 million pounds, or 34 million taels of silver, flowed to China, but only 4 to 5 million taels of silver returned.

How big was the world's precious metal plate at that time? And these 34 million taels "disappeared" directly from the concept of hot money and entered the "black hole".

34 million taels were eaten up here in a year... This is not the era of printing money, but the era of precious metals. It is impossible not to be scary.

It's scary to death.

That's why it is said that the uprising in China has a much greater impact than the Russian War, the Italian War, and even the activities of various messy secret societies in Europe.

Why was it China that revolted?

Because, according to statistics, Lao Ma came to the conclusion that the flow of silver can be divided into three stages.

In the first stage, from the 16th century to 1830, silver flowed purely from Europe to Asia, and there was no possibility of flowing back to Europe. Here, it is not just China, but also the colonized India. That is to say, China, as a part of Asia, still pulled Asia's silver surplus to Europe to 1830 with the amount of colonization and plunder of India on its back.

The second stage was from 1831 to 1849.

During this period, Britain's colonial plunder of India accelerated.

Moreover, during this period [Britain's "kindness" forced China to conduct formal opium trade and opened the door to the "world piled with opium" by force. The direction of precious metal circulation has undergone a sharp change].

However, the tenacity of the small peasant economy and the developed resilience of the handicraft industry of the Eastern Empire are incomparable to that little steam engine.

Therefore, from 1849 to 1856, the third stage appeared.

Silver flowed back to Asia from Europe again.

The reason was the Taiping Rebellion.

Opium sales were weakened, the chaotic times led to the hoarding of silver for risk aversion, Indian cotton yarn began to stimulate the local textile industry to "weave but not spin" and rapidly increase cloth production, and the threat of war to trading ports... It directly led to the super surplus of 18 million taels in 1855, and the outflow of about 64 million taels of silver from Europe to the whole of Asia, which directly triggered the financial crisis in Europe.

The above historical facts are of great significance to Dashun.

That is, one of the two problems that the development model worried about - the problem of precious metals - Dashun did not have to worry about in the short term.

Because, with the Qing Dynasty, the rampant opium, and the import of cotton and opium from India, it was still possible to achieve a surplus of 18 million taels.

Now, Dashun has no opium.

Secondly, India’s cotton is in Dashun’s own hands.

Thirdly, the traditional handicrafts of Dashun and the Qing Dynasty in 1855 seem to be not much different, of course, non-traditional ones are not counted. But the European industry in 1855 and the European industry in 1760 are very different. In 1855, the non-opium industrial products that could sell for 1.12 million pounds would be hard to tell now if the word "wan" is removed - ginseng, mink fur, and oriental pearls are not industrial products.

Fourthly, it is Dashun itself that is digging for gold and silver on the west coast of North America.

Fifthly, North America has not yet developed, and the American precious metals accumulated by Europe for hundreds of years will not flow to the North American railways, but can only flow to Dashun - this is mainly because there is really no place to go. Originally, in this era, the financial capital of the Netherlands could only flow to the canal industry in Britain. Now, Dashun has won the war, abolished the status of Manchester cotton textile and Liverpool slave trading port, and no one will invest in the British canal. The Dutch financial capital is stuck in their hands, and it is not easy to play another tulip game. Where else can they run to?

Dashun has not abolished the triangular trade, but has replaced the status of the "industrial products" provider of the triangular trade. This is called bitter hatred of pressing gold thread year after year and making wedding clothes for others.

Therefore, Dashun, as a prototype of the "emperor", has a crazy surplus even if it does not consider the imperialist set, even if it is normal trade.

In addition, precious metals from North America, Australia, Borneo, and India continue to flow and be mined in Dashun.

Naturally, in the short term, there is no need to worry about the problem of "financial crisis caused by insufficient precious metals".

As for the general uprising caused by the collapse of the Indian spinning handicraft industry due to the European revolution, the awakening of India, and the use of spinning machines in the future, the market will suddenly drop, and the sudden interruption of the inflow of precious metals will cause the "conduction" uprising, which is not considered here.

Because, this may take 20 or 30 years.

When it collapses in 20 or 30 years, it doesn’t matter, because the foundation has been laid anyway.

Moreover, by then, we will even say that the collapse is good and wonderful, and a wave of general crisis will directly kill the Dashun Dynasty.

Therefore, the financial crisis caused by the shortage of precious metals, the crisis that Dashun chooses to continue reform with that idea, is not necessary to consider.

It is meaningful, and the significance is huge. Once it breaks out, it will be super large-scale.

However, at least there is no need to worry that the set has only been played for three or five years, and even the Yellow River channel has not been completed, and the railway has not been completed, then it will collapse.

Wait until the foundation is laid, and then it will collapse.

This is the first crisis.

As for the second one, that is, can Dashun’s industry maintain high-speed growth for a long time, and not just three or five years, this set of rapid industrial development will be bottlenecked?

This still needs to consider the positioning of Dashun as the "emperor".

Since it is the real world, it is impossible to "put aside reality".

Since it is the real world, there can be no so-called vacuum spherical chicken.

Since it is the real world, Dashun has a total population of more than 300 million, and the agricultural population is at least 300 million, accounting for at least 30% of the world's total population. It is impossible not to consider the damage caused by the development of industry and commerce to the small peasant economy, as well as the peasant uprisings and large-scale protests under the collapse.

This does not mean that holding the scriptures and saying "You will be run over by the wheels of history" will make the small peasant economy ready to be slaughtered, thinking that since you want to progress, you will die, so you will pass through it safely.

To put it bluntly, this is just that Dashun is still in its heyday and has not yet reached its end.

If it really reached its end, just by changing the trade center from Guangdong to Songsu and just abolishing the canal and changing to the sea, without considering semi-colonial dumping and other things, just these two things, a million canal workers, 100,000 Guangdong embroidery, 200,000 Wuling Ancient Road porters, and 100,000 Xijiang shipping boatmen, can directly overturn Dashun. Even if it can't be overturned, at least half of it will be overturned.

Moreover, if the small peasant economy is really affected, then the level is not as simple as those two things.

To put it bluntly, you, the Li family of Dashun, stand on the side of industry and commerce and the bourgeoisie. Then we, the small peasants, will go to Zhang Zicheng and Zhao Xianzhong to become emperors who will distribute land equally, emphasize agriculture, and despise commerce.

When Lao Ma evaluated the "Farce of the Two Napoleons", he talked about the problem of "small peasants".

Or, he talked about the situation of "small peasants" when facing the two Napoleons.

During the first Napoleon:

Through "distributing land equally", the French feudal peasants became the owners of small plots of land, and the material conditions for Napoleon to become emperor. This was the condition for France to ensure the prosperity of rural residents in France in the early 19th century.

At that time, the feudal peasants stood up, overthrew the land aristocracy, and tore off the feudal shackles on their bodies. At that time, they stood with the emperor to oppose the old times, the old aristocracy, the old system, and the old feudalism.

At that time, their interests were coordinated with those of the bourgeoisie, and they stood up together to oppose the feudal forces.

By the time of the second Napoleon:

The feudal lords had been replaced by urban usurers; feudal obligations on land had been replaced by mortgages; the landed property of the nobility had been replaced by bourgeois capital.

The peasants' small plots of land were now only a pretext for the capitalists to extract profits, interest and rent from the land, while leaving the cultivators of the land to earn their wages as they pleased.

The mortgage debts on French lands annually extract from the French peasants as much interest as the entire British public debt.

Small plots of land ownership, which were enslaved by capital (and its development inevitably led to such enslavement), turned more than half of the French people into primitive people.

Sixteen million peasants (including women and children) lived in caves, most of which had only one small window, some had two small windows, and the best had only three small windows...

In addition to the mortgage debt imposed by capital, small plots of land also shouldered the burden of taxes. Taxes were the source of life for bureaucrats, the army, and the court...

After the feudal bourgeoisie was smashed, usurers, mortgage loans, rent extraction, etc., were like vampires sucking its blood and brains and throwing it into the alchemy furnace of capital.

The above, so.

In terms of the self-cultivating peasant economy, landlords renting, usury, rent, interest extraction, etc. in North China.

Are the self-cultivating peasants of Dashun in the stage of "the first Napoleon"?

Or have they already reached the stage of "the second Napoleon"?

In France, it was the bourgeois revolution that allowed small farmers to obtain land, exempted feudal labor, allowed land transactions, abolished feudal inheritance laws, abolished the serf system, and realized the "small peasant economy".

In Dashun, this set of things... did not need a wave of legal reforms before they could be obtained in legal terms. Because, in the North China and Central Plains regions of Dashun, after the Dashun uprising and the establishment of the country, there was originally a small peasant economy, and the demands of land transactions, abolishment of the feudal eldest son inheritance law for civilians, and exemption of personal dependence were already achieved.

On the contrary, the self-cultivating farmers in Dashun actually skipped the demands of the legal reform stage and jumped directly to the fate of the Nasan era. They faced the situation that the feudal lords had been replaced by urban usurers; the feudal obligations on the land had been replaced by the mortgage system; the estates of the nobles had been replaced by the capital of the bourgeoisie...

Therefore, they had no possibility of standing with the bourgeoisie at all.

The Emperor of Dashun wanted to develop industry and commerce, but he also knew that small farmers were the basic base. He stood on one side and seemed to stand on the other side. He wanted to be the emperor of the world's scholars, farmers, merchants and artisans, but this was not the agricultural era. What could he do?

If there was no choice, he could only choose one of the two: either small farmers or large-scale development of industry and commerce, then the emperor would definitely choose small farmers. There was no need to think about it. If he did not develop industry and commerce, the country would only last for 250 years at most; if he developed industry and commerce and abandoned small farmers, tomorrow might be the year of Jiazi.

However, now that Dashun had fought the first war, hadn't it become imperialism?

And Lao Ma said it clearly:

In the industrial age, industrial hegemony made finance a vassal of industry.

In the handicraft age, commercial hegemony brought about industrial development; and commercial hegemony originated from national strength, the army, warships, commercial wars, and protection systems.

Everyone was engaged in handicrafts, and even if there was a gap, it was not much, which was different from the logic of the industrial age. So whoever can fight and whoever has a fleet can get the ticket to industrial development.

After the first war, Dashun won commercial hegemony.

As a result, Manchester's cotton textile industry died, Dhaka and Surat's cotton textile industry collapsed, and France's imitation lacquerware industry could no longer pretend to be Chinese goods and sell them to Germany...

The world market was so big at that time.

If the textile workers in Surat didn't die, Dashun's family textile industry would die in order to squeeze out the domestic market. Without the market, what kind of industry and commerce can be developed.

If a textile worker starved to death in Manchester, Dashun would have an extra non-agricultural population.

Dashun could only rely on overseas trade to develop industry and commerce. If it relied on the domestic market, it would develop today, but it would be overthrown by the rebels tomorrow, and it was obvious that it could not beat 300 million small farmers.