New Shun 1730

Small farmers are the foundation of Dashun.

As long as the foundation does not collapse, broken pillars can be replaced and broken wall stones can be covered with mud.

If the foundation collapses, the entire building, including the chairs inside, will collapse.

On weekdays, the foundation can be stepped on. It is not as elegant as the dragons on the pillars, not as intrigues on the roof eaves, and not as needing to be wiped from time to time as the window lattices.

However, once the foundation moves, the earth will shake.

The Dashun court is very clear about this. Because the Li family of Dashun had climbed out of the cracks and shocks of the previous foundation.

However, with the end of the Little Ice Age, the introduction of American crops, and the gradual stabilization of the northern border, this foundation has become increasingly unstable.

Therefore, the emperor also needs to fill, repair, and tidy up the foundation from time to time.

This requires money, food, and supplies.

Including relief, redemption, returning land, reducing labor service, repairing the Yellow River, building roads to facilitate grain transportation, etc., these are all considered "repairing the constantly damaged foundation and extending it for a few more years".

In the words of Lao Ma: In an agricultural country with a large peasant economy, the bourgeoisie is still a cripple and insufficient to rule, the workers have not yet had enough power to step onto the stage, the handicraftsmen and petty bourgeoisie themselves are not very strong, and the old aristocracy is also insufficient - the emperor plays the role of a benefactor like the head of all classes. However, if he does not get something from one class, he cannot give something to another class.

Now, these old, new, and newly emerging different classes of Dashun have their own demands.

Industry and commerce hope to prosper like flowers in a greenhouse under a strong government. They demand stability and external expansion.

And, if possible, they hope that the court can open up the internal market instead of forcing them to work only overseas.

Since it is said that the emperor wants the emperor to play the role of a benefactor like the head of all classes. But at the same time, if he does not get something from one class, he cannot give something to another class.

Then, the emperor certainly could not satisfy all the demands of industry and commerce.

He could only satisfy half of them.

For example, stability, expansion, and protection.

However, for the other half, such as opening up the internal market, relaxing internal customs duties, and allowing more goods to flow along the Yangtze River, official roads, and canals to impact those inland small farmers, the emperor would definitely not agree.

This is especially true after the prince's radical industrial and commercial policies in Hubei failed.

So, it is inevitable to say that "the result of wanting to play the role of a benefactor like a parent of all classes is that all classes feel dissatisfied."

However, for the time being, this dissatisfaction, especially the dissatisfaction of the emerging class, can still be suppressed.

The means of suppression is the previous external expansion, which took over the vast colonies, sphere of influence, and the world market.

This is why the industrial and commercial output value of Dashun can continue to increase and prevent this set of things from temporarily collapsing.

Obviously, trade with India, Southeast Asia, Africa, Europe, and neighboring Korea and Japan are enough for Dashun to maintain a very high speed of industrial development.

History has proved this.

In the age of steam engines, this large colony and sphere of influence could support at least 5 million non-agricultural factory population.

Although this number is not too large compared to the at least 70 to 80 million people in Shandong, Jiangsu, Northeast China and other places that were regarded as outside by the emperor's internal and external division.

However, this also shows that according to historical experience, especially the historical experience of Britain as the sun never sets but before the Opium War - that is, without considering the East Asian market.

Dashun still has a lot of room to develop to the point where "more markets are necessary".

This huge space ensures that Dashun's annual industrial output value maintains an explosive growth rate, and there is probably no problem with growth for more than ten or twenty years.

From this, we can see that the two limitations of this set of things: precious metals and industrial development speed, at least in the next twenty years, will not be a big problem.

So, this is a theoretically feasible solution.

As for whether the Dashun court has the ability to guarantee that a large amount of precious metals may flow into the country within ten years - including the gold and silver mines on the west coast of North America and the gold mines in Australia. After all, there must be a New San Francisco before San Francisco, and the reason why San Francisco is old is because New San Francisco is Melbourne - under the premise of ensuring stable prices, successful currency reform, hot money will not flow to the land, and a large amount of money will not fly to the mainland to hoard land and open pawnshops...

This is not a theoretical problem.

This is a problem of ability.

Whether it can be done is another matter.

In any case, this is a risky move.

Money, even precious metals, is said to be the more the better, but if too much flows in at once in a short period of time, there will definitely be big problems.

After all, money flows in, it must be spent.

And gold mines, silver mines, foreign trade surpluses, etc., with so much silver flowing in, silver must be relatively depreciated.

Silver is relatively depreciated, and those who hold silver in their hands will think about spending the silver.

And there are not many people holding silver in their hands. Even if they are really extravagant enough to carve the firewood for cooking at home, drink wine every day, and order courtesans every day, they can't spend so much on daily consumption.

Since they can't spend so much on daily consumption, and silver is obviously depreciating, they must invest.

And, no matter what, even if you talk about it, buying land is still the safest, highest return, and best risk-averse investment for Dashun at this time.

This is something that even women like Qin Keqing know.

In addition to buying land, the next best thing is obviously not to build factories, repair water conservancy, and improve land.

The next best thing... Shaanxi merchants have set an example in Sichuan before, opening pawnshops and lending at high interest rates.

Next to that, there are speculation, hoarding, reselling, and hype.

This is not a new thing. There are many people who can play this trick over the past thousand years. The salt administration of the previous dynasty even played new tricks in speculation and hoarding; when the Qing Dynasty carried out the ticket law reform in history, there was even a "raising shares to buy tickets, hoarding tickets without selling salt, and selling tickets to make a profit from the difference" operation.

These things don't need to be taught at all.

This is the problem of too free capital flow.

Moreover, this has nothing to do with the goodness or badness of people, morality, etc. It is purely a matter of the principles of market economy and the growth of capital.

Having money to start an industry in order to create a new era is noble.

Having money to buy land and open a pawnshop is normal profit-seeking, because this thing has the highest profit.

This is the situation.

This is the reality.

We are about to face an "explosive increase in currency" of about 20 million taels of gold and 200 to 300 million taels of silver within ten years. If this is not handled well - the reform of abolishing the head tax by Dashun now makes the land price under the policy of binding labor taxes and land - these hot money are enough to buy the total cultivated land area of ​​Shandong Province.

Things must be viewed dialectically.

The influx of a large amount of precious metals in a short period of time is the basis for Dashun to complete currency reform, at least to complete the silver standard.

Dashun itself has no gold mountain or silver mountain, and even copper had to be imported from Japan before, otherwise the issuance of copper coins would become a problem. The lessons learned from the previous paper currency were too great, so it did not dare to directly play with the government credit treasure notes.

Without a large amount of precious metals that may flow in within a short period of time, there will be no chance to complete the reform of silver standard or gold and silver bimetallic standard.

This reform is of course good for small farmers.

At the very least, the problems of fire consumption, copper and silver exchange, and the problem of speculators manipulating silver prices can all be alleviated to a certain extent.

It is not just the landlords and government that suck the blood of small farmers. Merchants are also very happy to suck the silver in their hands and control the exchange rate.

If the currency reform can be completed, Dashun can theoretically have its own central bank.

In theory, Dashun is also qualified to formulate monetary policy.

It can also be regarded as welcoming a new era for Dashun, giving the court an extra hand and an extra means of regulation.

As for whether it will be adjusted, whether it can be adjusted, or whether it will be adjusted, that is another matter.

Fortunately, the money from Dashun has basically a single direction of inflow.

In addition to the export of industrial products, the rest, such as tea and silk, are basically in places where transportation is relatively convenient and at least the price of grain can be stabilized. After all, Dashun was not actually short of food. The commercial grain from Nanyang and Southeast Asia could naturally be counted as Dashun's grain. What was lacking was just an efficient means of logistics.

However, in tea-producing areas and silk-producing areas, they were basically still within the circle of stable food transportation.

The rest, such as foreign trade such as cotton cloth, basically did not participate in the internal circulation.

Cotton came from Java, India, and northern Jiangsu; the market went to Nanyang, India, Africa, Europe, Northeast China, North Korea, and Japan.

In general, it might be possible to achieve rapid industrial development in the two coastal provinces without hurting small farmers in the interior.

Of course, this was not a natural outcome.

Because, what was a natural outcome should be the acceleration of Dashun's annexation, soaring land prices, and the uprising of refugees.

The rapid development of industry and commerce was just sailing against the current, and it was a natural outcome.

This required the feudal rulers to have extremely high skills.

Of course, this also included more brutal exploitation of colonies and spheres of influence.

Anyway, the old small peasant economy must be disintegrated, and tens of millions of families with men farming and women weaving must be sacrificed to allow industry and commerce to develop.

It is not a sacrifice for one's own family.

It is a sacrifice for others' family.

With the small peasant economy as the main body and industry and commerce developing, the kind of "Bonapartism" will basically appear.

And Bonapartism will inevitably slide into external expansion.

In view of the continued development of industry and commerce, the market must continue.

Without considering the radical transformation, bloodshed, turmoil, and major changes in ownership that occurred in Dashun.

Either open up the internal market and let the developed regions "colonize" the underdeveloped regions.

Or, expand externally and transform Japan, India, Korea, Southeast Asia and other places according to the will of capitalism.

Even if "colonization" is quoted, in this era, that is, the transition period between the handicraft and industrial eras, colonization is not just "dumping of goods and disintegration of the small peasant economy" - this is a semi-colony.

And the real colony will directly fall into what Lao Ma said, "the commercial hegemony of the handicraft era, and the plundering system brought about by commercial hegemony."

Semi-colonies are mainly for dumping goods.

Colonies are for buying land, going deep into the countryside to lend money at high interest rates, financial speculation, controlling prices, manipulating prices, and financial robbery.

The current situation of Dashun is indeed suitable for Bonapartism.

After all, the centralization of power has not collapsed. Dashun has a complete set of state machinery, although it is not very powerful, but the parts are basically complete.

Bonapartism is not something that anyone can play with. Without a complete set of state machinery, it is definitely not possible to play with it.

In France, Bonapartism is not something that a tough guy will do as he says.

It was also from the centralization of the old system that began with Louis XIV, to the French Revolution, the Jacobin land reform, and the strengthening of centralization by the Emperor, which accumulated little by little until the time of Louis III, that such a system could be implemented.

And given that the peasants of Dashun are actually in a situation that is not like the French peasants before the French Revolution, but more like the French peasants during Louis III.

At the same time, small farmers are the foundation of the Dashun Dynasty, and the development of the new era has forced the emperor to develop industry and commerce, which has given Dashun a good foundation for this system.

The emperor naturally could not know what Bonaparte is by reading scriptures. After all, even Louis I was not born until two years later.

However, not knowing the name does not mean that you will not follow this idea.

After all, there are not many options.

There is no way to retreat, no way to stay still, and no way to advance. There is really no other way.

Fortunately, while the emperor was still in his prime and Liu Yu was not old, he won the battles in Southeast Asia and India. Probably, even if the prince of Dashun was too low-level, it is estimated that he would not fight to the level of the Battle of Sedan, which would give away Dashun's colonies and sphere of influence in one wave.

As long as he did not give away, in theory, Dashun could still leave an industrial population of 3 to 5 million people on the premise of ensuring that the small farmers in the interior would not collapse and fall into chaos. At least, it would reach the industrial population and industrial output value of Britain in 1840.