Rebirth of the investment era

Lin Antu looked at Su Yu, not expecting him to be so decisive.

After being stunned for a moment, he held Su Yu's hand tightly and said with a smile: "Don't worry, Mr. Su. Since I am honest with you, I naturally want to work with you, Mr. Su, to bring better things to the company." develop."

"Okay!" Su Yu nodded with a smile, picked up a cup of tea on the table, and said, "Then I wish everyone can work together and create a new chapter in the future."

With that said, the three of them had a drink with each other, using tea instead of wine to celebrate Lin Antu's joining.

Later, under the leadership of Su Yu, the three of them talked about many topics. At this point, he had a better understanding of Lin Antu and felt more at ease.

At 8 o'clock in the evening, after dinner, the three of them dispersed.

When Su Yu returned home, he saw Li Meng holding the computer and trying to review the stock market. He couldn't help but be a little surprised and asked curiously: "What did you find? What insights do you have?"

"The market is going pretty weak."

Li Meng looked up at Su Yu and replied: "Although it rebounded today, the ChiNext Index, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index have all ended their four consecutive negative trends, and there is still a golden needle to find the bottom, but In fact, the hot spots are scattered, and there is no sector that can really gather popularity and funds."

"And, under such sluggish trading volume in the two cities."

"Funds from the two cities are still flowing out."

"This phenomenon is most prominent on the main board. It seems that the main funds of institutions are singing long while selling rapidly at the same time. They have different opinions and are very fragmented."

"But your Shanghai Steel Federation is still strong."

Li Meng smiled and continued: "When you came out of the market and the market exploded like that, you were still able to close the positive line of 3 points, which was only a little lower than the opening price. Its market capital was in The follow-up aggregation effect on this check is really amazing.”

"But, the trend of this check tomorrow should be very worrying."

"Oh?" Su Yu asked, "How can you see it?"

"After the Dragon and Tiger List came out, everyone saw you selling off more than 60 million chips, and their hearts went cold." Li Meng said, turning the computer screen to show Su Yu the topics of the Shanghai Steel Federation's stock discussion forum, and On the webpage she opened, there were various hot topics, and she chuckled, "The influence of your seat is the same as that of the Shanghai Steel Federation, which is really surprising."

"It's not that my seat has great influence." Su Yu said, "It's the original emotional trend of the market. That's it. I'm just a guide."

"Shanghai Steel Federation has reached this point, and the chasing and following the trend of funds has reached its limit."

"It's impossible to go any further."

"Moreover, even if I don't smash the market today, according to the turnover rate of this stock, its short-term market will end here."

"For the market, there has never been a single person, or a major force of funds, that can support the situation and reverse the market trend."

"us……"

“No matter whether you have large funds or small funds, you can only follow the trend and provide emotional guidance.”

"This is true whether the trend is a macroeconomic trend, a performance trend based on stock price fundamentals, or an emotional following trend in short-term speculation."

"It makes sense!" Li Meng nodded, agreeing with Su Yu's words.

"By the way, Su Yu..." Li Meng paused for a while and continued, "What do you think of the next market trend? And... after the Shanghai Steel Federation's check, which one do you plan to make? Have you reached the goal?”

"My opinion is similar to yours."

Su Yu said: "You are right, the market rebound is still too weak, and the choices and ideas of hot money and market institutions' main funds are too separated."

"In this fragmented situation..."

"The K-line shape looks like a bottom, but judging from its volume and energy shape and the emotional and financial aspects reflected in the current market, it is still extremely difficult for the index to stabilize at this position."

"As for which check to make after Shanghai Steel Union..."

Su Yu thought for a while and continued: "I haven't thought about this yet, but I am sure that the main line in the future will still be on the several major concept sectors where GEM stocks gather."

"It's just that the current market has not shown any signs of bottoming out, and neither the financial nor emotional aspects are in place to start the market."

"We can only wait secretly and observe slowly."

After saying that, Su Yu told him that he had ended his financial management operations and had returned the account to the customer, and at the same time, he also talked about Lin Antu.

"It's good that it's over!"

Li Meng nodded and said: "When I saw that you had more than 60 million yuan on the Dragon Tiger List, I became nervous for you, for fear that people from the Securities Regulatory Bureau and the police would knock on the door."

"Uh..." Su Yu chuckled, "No, it's not that serious if the people don't take action and the officials don't investigate."

"not to mention……"

Su Yu paused and said: "The current regulatory attitude is originally loose. Otherwise, if we severely crack down on hot money speculation in the market at this time, I am afraid that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index will fall below 2,000 points, and by then, market sentiment will be even worse." Unfortunately, the political task of restarting IPOs and restoring the direct financing function of the stock market has become even more distant and difficult to achieve."

"IPO has indeed been suspended for a long time." Li Meng said, "Do you think there is hope for a restart in the short term?"

Su Yu shook his head and said: "The market sentiment is gone, the money-making effect is not concentrated, and there are no new investors entering the market. There is no way to talk about restarting the IPO."

"After all, the current total transaction volume of the two markets is less than 50 billion, and both public and private equity funds are half-dead."

"Even if the IPO is restarted, the issuance of new shares will inevitably break."

"In that case, the function of direct financing cannot be achieved, and naturally it will be meaningless."

"in this way……"

"If you want to restart the IPO, you must wait until the market is bullish, the trend reverses, the market has a sustained money-making effect, and a large number of new investors continue to enter the market."

"Yes!" Li Meng nodded, his eyes suddenly brightened, "Since IPO cannot be restarted in the short term, if a company wants to be listed on A-shares, the only way to go is restructuring and backdooring."

"What, you want to fry the shell?" Su Yu said with a smile.

Li Meng replied: "Since the IPO cannot be restarted, this should be regarded as a more sustainable main line of speculation, right?"

"It counts." Su Yu smiled and nodded, "But you need wind!"

Valley sage

"Wind?" Li Meng frowned slightly.

Su Yu responded and continued to reply: "Yes, the line of restructuring, although IPO has been suspended, has always been a long-lasting hype theme in the market, but often every wave of hype requires restructuring to be successful. Cases are used to stimulate, usually after a stock is successfully reorganized, its resumption of trading rises beyond market expectations, which is the best time for shell speculation.”

"But at the current time point, this wind has not arrived."

Su Yu thought for a while and continued: "No market speculation occurs out of thin air. The formation of the main market trend requires not only the promotion of funds and the guidance of emotions, but most importantly, the stimulation of external 'wind outlets' , only by standing on the trend, with the help of funds and emotions, can we create a sustainable market, and can we harvest considerable profits from this sustainable market."

"So, is this the underlying logic of short-term speculation?" Li Meng said suddenly.

Su Yu smiled and said: "It can also be said that without the support of underlying logic, relying solely on financial promotion and emotional guidance is still a castle in the air, and it is difficult to be sustainable. Without a sustainable market, funds will be easy to enter but not easy to exit. , it is difficult to obtain any excess profits.”

"I understand!" Li Meng nodded, "Thank you!"

Su Yu looked at her with a smile and asked, "You...are studying this? Short-term logic!"

"Yes!" Li Meng nodded, "I'm thinking, you went from Tianyu Information to Huaqingbao, from Huaqingbao to Fenda Technology, and then from Fenda Technology to Shanghai Steel Federation, why do you think so every time? If it can be successful, why can these tickets gather enough popularity and market capital to follow suit when you participate? But now that you have reminded me, I finally understand that your short-term speculation ability is indeed very unparalleled. "

Su Yu laughed loudly and thought to himself: "Without the rearview mirror of rebirth and ten years of experience, it would be impossible to accurately judge these and take action at the most appropriate time."

However, he will definitely not say this.

"By the way, in addition to feeling that the market's main funds are constantly flowing out and institutional funds are relatively separated from what they say and do, have you noticed anything unusual?" Su Yu stared at Li Meng and reminded, "For example, these institutional funds are in Why does this position continue to outflow, why are they selling long while selling short? Have you ever thought about the logic behind this?"

"In my opinion, any change in the market is not without reason."

"Reviewing the market is not about looking at the rise and fall of stock prices, nor is it just focusing on changes in sentiment on the market. It is about exploring the logic behind the subtle changes in the market and thinking about what happened outside the market to deduce the subsequent market trends. Markets evolve.”

"You think the golden needle is not the bottom, so what is the reason that causes the market to continue to fall, causing the main funds of various departments to continue to sell, and the market capital to be seriously tightened?"

“Only by finding out the logic behind this can we deduce the next market trend!”

“Only in this way can we be mentally prepared and formulate a reliable investment strategy, so that we will not be confused when the market situation comes.”

Compared to him, Li Meng at this time lacked a lot in terms of operational experience, the way he thought about the market, the ability to derive logic, and the ability to detect the market...

Therefore, in order to make the other party grow quickly, he doesn't mind speaking more clearly and encouraging others.

When Li Meng heard Su Yu's suggestion, she felt her mind buzzing, and many of the problems that had troubled her suddenly became clear.

Su Yu saw her thinking...

He smiled and stopped disturbing her. He walked into the bedroom and changed his clothes, then went to take a shower.

Then, when he finished washing, he returned to the living room.

I saw that Li Meng was searching for some news about bank loans, and recording various economic data in the first quarter, such as changes in money supply, increase in social financing, PPI data, GDP growth data and the relationship between the central bank's monetary policy. Looking for the reasons why the current market capital situation is tight, bank loans have been tightened, and market financing has collapsed.

"How?" Su Yu asked.

Li Meng noticed his gaze, looked up with a smile, and said excitedly: "No wonder you liquidated all your positions today. Not only the stock market is sad, but the entire financial system should be in crisis."

"Have you found the reason?" Su Yu continued to ask.

Li Meng nodded and said: "The interbank lending rate and overnight repurchase rate of banks are rising more and more steeply. Judging from the situation, they should be on the verge of losing control. And judging from the information channels on the entire network, about the recent Judging from the numerous information on bank loan approval, whether it is large or small businesses or individuals, loan approval has been very difficult recently."

"While bank loan approvals are tightening..."

"I have also seen some rural commercial banks and local regional banks openly raising their base interest rates by 30% or 50% in order to absorb deposits."

“While tightening lending, we are frantically absorbing savings.”

"This fool can also know that the bank is short of money, and it seems that this situation has been happening for a while, and there are signs of getting worse."

"Looking at the first quarter economic data."

"Both the central bank and banks conducted a wave of large-scale water releases at the beginning of the year."

"But this wave of water release, judging from the GDP data and PPI data, did not stimulate the economy. Instead, it resulted in excess liquidity, extremely poor capital utilization efficiency, and increased inflation."

"So, I guess the central bank remains unmoved when there has been a problem with market capital for such a long time."

"There must be a change in the direction of monetary macro policy."

"In other words, this is forcing banks to tighten off-balance sheet assets, allowing them to resolve risks and crises on their own, curb liquidity, suppress inflation, and improve the efficiency of capital use."

"As banks shrink their off-balance sheet assets, they will inevitably reduce their holdings of securities assets or other investment assets."

“So, this has resulted in the stock market’s continuous plunge and the continued outflow of institutional funds, and this trend... seems to not change easily before the central bank makes a new monetary decision.”

When Su Yu heard Li Meng's words, he gave him a thumbs up and said with a smile: "I have to say, you are quite good. You have found the key node in such a short period of time."

"Your guidance is still good!" Li Meng chuckled, "Under the surging undercurrent, the storm should be very close. Originally, I just guessed that the golden needle in the market today was not so stable. Now look... This is not the same as the golden needle. , I’m afraid many investors will be buried here!”

"Markets always start out of despair."

Su Yu said: "Without this final drop, where would the market be reborn? Only when these most stubborn institutional players have no choice but to cut their flesh and release the lowest chips in this market crisis, can the market usher in a 'lightweight battle'" 'Only by relying on limited funds can we restore market sentiment step by step and create a sustained money-making effect, thereby achieving upward positive feedback from the market and reversing the bear market pattern."

"So, in my opinion, that's not a bad thing."

"Yeah!" Li Meng responded, thought for a while, and continued to study the market.

Su Yu said, "Go to bed early," and then went into the bedroom alone. He lay on the bed and browsed news and forums on his phone for a while, and then fell asleep.

The next few days...

In addition to occasionally inspecting the company's renovation progress, Su Yu interviewed several rounds of company management personnel at Qin Haowen's request. The rest of the time, he hid at home, guiding Li Meng to do short-term operations during the day, or deepening her knowledge. Her logical understanding of market changes helped her grow rapidly.

Until Tuesday, June 18th.

When there were only two days left in the half-month deadline he had agreed with Li Huiyuan, the owner of the 'Yi Chuang Planning' company, Li Huiyuan took the initiative to call him and invite him to have dinner together again.

At this time, Su Yu walked out of the house and went alone to the restaurant where the other party asked Shi Yuling to meet him last time.