Rebirth of the investment era

When Gu Chijiang heard this, he glanced at the trading team leader and asked, "Do you think it can be taken again?" "I think the underlying logic of Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group has not changed." The leader of the trading team said, "Furthermore, as the Shanghai stock market is a major domestic economic center, in the expectation of a return to economic growth, basic logic stocks such as Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group that directly benefit from the local economic construction of the Shanghai stock market, we I think we can continue to hold and wait for further reversal in relevant fundamentals, at least after the annual report before making a decision."

"Team Leader Lin, your logic is a bit forced!" Hao Weilai said with a smile, "The most important thing to avoid is hesitation when holding stocks. The semi-annual reports of Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group have already revealed their performance. The nature of recession, and... Looking at the second half of the year, the various market information we have researched and mastered are not enough to prove that these two stocks can usher in a reversal of performance in the second half of the year, that is, it cannot prove that they performance can return to the growth curve.”

"in my opinion

"The process of holding shares is a process of continuous trial and error."

"We can't determine which stocks can truly reverse their predicament, so... we can only continue to eliminate the weak and retain the strong, leaving the targets with the highest probability and the highest recognition of market funds.'

“Judging from the performance of today’s call auction, it is obvious that market funds’ recognition of Jincheng Fenjiu’s performance is significantly higher than that of Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group.”

“Market funds don’t lie

"This means that the probability of Jincheng Fenjiu's predicament reversing is obviously greater than that of Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group."

"Furthermore, comparing the overall performance and performance of the three stocks this year, as well as the current valuation level, Jincheng Fenjiu is obviously oversold than Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group, with a lower valuation level and better performance. So ...What’s wrong with removing the weak and retaining the strong, and converging the future risks of investment towards individual stocks with smaller risk probabilities?'

"I'm not saying that it's wrong to eliminate the weak and retain the strong when the performance of the holding target is lower than expected." Leader Lin retorted, "I'm just saying... we use 'Jingda No. 1' as a long-term investment fund. , you should take a longer-term view, and don’t just look at the quarterly report in front of you when making investments.”

"If we really follow the quarterly report

"In the performance report announced yesterday, the widely discussed Netspeed Technology and Fenda Technology, as well as many Apple industry chain stocks, such as Goertek, OFILM Technology, etc., all have very good performance growth rates. Do we want to go high? Should we pursue these stocks that have doubled or tripled in the short term and have PEs above 100 times?”

"That's naturally impossible." Hao Weilai said, "A bear market focuses on quality, and a bull market focuses on momentum. Popular stocks such as GEM are too far away from normal valuations. Chasing prices at high levels is extremely risky."

"That's it." Team Leader Lin paused and continued, "I'm not saying that Jincheng Fenjiu, or even the liquor sector, is bad. Compare the liquor sector's overall average valuation in 11 and 12 years, and even the entire sector in the previous ten years. , at this time, the liquor sector has indeed been significantly underestimated and is very cost-effective, but

"Don't we already have enough positions in Jincheng Fenjiu?"

"If we increase our position in the liquor sector, I'm afraid there is a risk of concentrated holdings!"

"If you remove the weak and retain the strong, how come there is a risk of concentrated shareholding?" Hao Weilai did not agree with the words of Team Leader Lin, chuckled, and said, "At present, in addition to Jincheng Fenjiu, the current funds in China Baosteel and Shenhua Coal Aren't positions held in commercial banks and commercial banks not counted?'

"Moreover, we know that the current liquor sector has all the conditions and expectations for a reversal of the predicament.'

"Moreover, valuations have hit rock bottom, and the ratio of shareholding risks to future profits is already quite attractive. Under such a situation... we still have to hold on to risks that are relatively high, and there is little hope for the future." Will risky stocks that show no signs of reversal continue to lose money?”

While the two were debating, the time had reached 9:25, and the collective bidding in the two cities ended.

Jincheng Fenjiu opened 2.1% higher, and a total of 1,231 lots of orders were traded in the call auction, which was significantly higher than the previous trading days. The Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao checks also had a call auction volume of more than 1,000 lots. , also reflected the trend of heavy volume.

It's just that Jincheng Fenjiu's price is rising due to heavy volume, while these two checks are falling due to heavy volume.

Facing such an opening scene, Gu Chijiang was silent for a moment and said: "Let's see how the market goes after the opening. As Director Hao said, everyone has different psychological expectations when it comes to the fundamentals and future of stocks. , it’s difficult to make a decision, but the market’s capital selection will not deceive people.”

"If Jincheng Fenjiu, and even the entire liquor sector, has indeed received significant recognition from market funds."

"And the funds on the market of Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group have been outflowing, and their ability to take over is not strong, and their stock prices are also falling, so there is really nothing to hesitate."

“As for if the stock trends of Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group are seriously worse than expected, the funds freed up by stopping losses will

"We can plan and discuss again to see where to invest.'

The market has been oscillating back and forth for almost 20 days at 2000 points, and the GEM index has clearly broken through upward with volume. Although Gu Chijiang does not understand the logic of the GEM's continued dominance, like many institutional fund managers, he thinks it is the market. Hot money is on the GEM, taking advantage of the ease of market regulation to speculate randomly, but at the same time, he clearly feels that this is the bottom of the market.

According to the overall investment strategy.

Here, he no longer needs to panic and can take positions with confidence.

Therefore, even if the fund's positions are withdrawn from Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group, he will not let the funds idle in the fund account.

certainly

As Hao Weilai is seriously optimistic about the liquor sector, can it turn around and lead the blue-chip sector of the main board market in the second half of the year to get out of the quagmire and resume its upward trend?

At present, he is not entirely sure.

We still have to wait patiently for a few days to see how strongly market funds attack and recognize this sector.

Only then can you make the final decision on whether to increase your position in this sector.

However, based on the fundamental analysis of the major sectors in the current market, it is true that the liquor sector has been seriously oversold and has a great price/performance ratio.

At least since he participated in market transactions__,

I have never seen such a valuation of less than 15 times PE in the liquor sector, which is the core of "big consumption".

Therefore, it was only when Hao Wei took a good look at this sector and suggested that he appropriately reduce his holdings of Shenhua Coal, Huaguo Baosteel, China Commercial Bank and other weighted core stocks, and increase his position in Jincheng Fenjiu, which has the best relative performance in the liquor sector, that he Without much hesitation, I agreed directly.

After all, facing the temptation of valuation in this sector, he was really a little moved in his heart.

During this period, younger members of the company, such as Mu Yao and Liu Ze, also suggested that he pursue some popular GEM stocks such as Wangsu Technology, Fenda Technology, and LeTV.

He was also moved when he saw that the GEM had been significantly stronger than the main board recently.

Unfortunately, faced with the 100-fold PE valuation of so-called growth stocks such as Internet Speed ​​Technology and Fenda Technology, as well as the trend that continued to be hyped by hot money, he really couldn't make a move and only made symbolic purchases when the market fell back. I bought some LeTV as a supplement to participate in the GEM market.

Of course, LeTV’s valuation is more than 100 times PE.

This resulted in him not daring to make a heavy move even if he participated in building a position on this stock.

After all, for such a ticket... according to his many years of market experience, it is easy to speculate, but once there is no funds to continue the attack, it will fall very quickly.

Currently, the company's three funds have net values ​​below 0.9.

He really doesn't have the courage to bet heavily on GEM concept stocks dominated by hot money.

Therefore, if you struggle and struggle, you will miss the GEM market more and more. You can only focus on the main board as the research object, and study the so-called 'dilemma' where the risk is low, the oversold is serious, but the future upside potential is not low. Invert' the plate again.

"Okay, Mr. Gu

Seeing that Gu Chijiang had already spoken, Hao Weilai and Team Leader Lin stopped arguing and nodded one after another.

When the three of them turned their attention back to the trading boards of the two cities, they saw that the time had passed 9:30. The stock prices of Jincheng Fenjiu, Shanghai-Hong Kong Group, and Waigaoqiao were jumping rapidly, and funds were constantly being bought and sold on and off the market. , showing different trends and forms.

At 9:35, Jincheng Fenjiu's stock price climbed to a 3.78% increase under the main attack of three consecutive 1,000 large orders, while Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao continued to increase their volume and continued to fall, with a decline of more than 2.7%. During this period , the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and ChiNext Index all showed a continuous upward trend.

Within these 5 minutes, the main fund trading of "Jingda Investment" was within the trend.

Gu Chijiang stared closely at the changes in market volume of the three stocks without making any moves or issuing any trading orders. 037:00, 9:42:00, 9:48:00

When the time advanced to 10 o'clock, the net inflow of Jincheng Fenjiu's large orders exceeded 10 million, and the entire liquor sector also showed a net inflow of funds. Qianzhou Moutai, the core leader of the sector, finally emerged from the downturn for many days. It was the first time this month that it had a 3% increase. At this time, Jincheng Fenjiu was leading the liquor sector, with an increase of more than 5%, becoming the top stock in the sector.

In contrast, the Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao stocks at this time.

While Jincheng Fenjiu is rising sharply, they still continue to decline. The amount of funds flowing out continues to expand, and the overall market acceptance situation is extremely weak.

And due to the drag of these two stocks, as well as the performance of stocks such as Huaguo Baosteel, Shenhua Coal Industry, and China Commercial Bank, while the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index, and ChiNext Index all made strong upward moves, today's Jingda The net value performance of investment funds still seriously lags behind the market and underperforms the market.

"Sell it!" Seeing that half an hour after the market opened, market funds had completely different attitudes toward Jincheng Fenjiu, which performed well, and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao, which performed poorly. Gu Chijiang sighed softly. With a sound, the order to sell Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao was finally issued, "It seems... market funds have already made their choice, and the liquor sector does seem to have ushered in a reversal of difficulties." 'The dawn of.'

Hearing Gu Chijiang's words, Hao Weilai, who had been standing silently behind him, finally smiled, glanced at Team Leader Lin who had stopped predicting, and said with a smile: "Mr. Gu's judgment, There is nothing wrong with it. Today, the amount of funds attacking the liquor sector has obviously increased a lot compared to the previous period. The volume is heavy at the bottom of a serious oversold situation. This is a sign of stock price reversal. I estimate... it will take up to half a month. Jincheng Fenjiu will be able to fill the big hole of decline in the previous two months."

"I hope!" Gu Chijiang nodded slightly, "Most of the funds managed by our fund are internal idle reserve funds of Pengyuan Real Estate. If by the end of the year, the net value of our fund is still half-dead, then Director Wang will not be able to do it again. Speak for us.

"Don't worry, Mr. Gu." Hao Weilai chuckled, "In the second half of the year, the liquor sector will definitely turn around!"

While the two were talking, Team Leader Lin sighed helplessly, and could only follow Gu Chijiang's instructions and issue instructions to the waiting traders to reduce their holdings of Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao.

Of course, he was not in a hurry to explain and let traders stick to Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group stocks.

The freed-up funds will be added to the liquor sector, which is heavy at the bottom and seems to be showing signs of reversal.

He believes that to determine the "difficulty reversal" of the liquor sector, it will take at least a week to observe, and when the net value of the fund is lower than 0.9 and the risk tolerance is not large, it is still reasonable to invest on the right side to be safe. .

As his order was issued, traders sold their positions in Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group in large quantities.

this moment

In the 'Yuhang Investment' trading room, Su Yu and Li Meng, who were also selling chips and suppressing the stock prices of Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group, sensed it instantly.