Rebirth of the investment era

"Indeed, it is rare to see such a tenacious bullish pattern in our A-share market!" When Deng Jialun exclaimed, Zheng Zhongming, the general manager of the asset management business, also sighed with emotion, "The continued sharp decline in the external market has a negative impact on the A-share market." The impact on the stock market has obviously begun to show diminishing marginal effects.

At the same time, the long capital groups in the domestic market.

Instigated by the continued hot market money-making effect and increasingly strong bull market expectations.

They have gradually begun to lose their rationality, pouring into the market in large quantities without hesitation, and have begun to increase their positions in the corresponding core main lines indiscriminately.

Six years!

This scene in the past happened six years ago.

There is no doubt that this wave of bull market will reach the current market shape with a high probability, but we don’t know whether the height space can exceed the height space of the previous round. "

"The exact bull market pattern still lacks some momentum, right?" After hearing the words of general manager Zheng Zhongming, Deng Jialun pondered for a moment and responded, "There are still many uncertain factors in the market. The most important thing is the basic logic of the outbreak of the bull market. , there is still something lacking.

A comprehensive recovery of the global economy is not expected to come so soon.

At least the European economies seem to have not yet emerged from the quagmire of the financial crisis.

As for our country, although the overall economic situation is better, there are still many hidden dangers. In particular, bulk commodity prices have not moved. Coal, steel, and non-ferrous metal bulk futures prices are still in a state of falling, and The problem of serious overcapacity in various industries has not yet been resolved.

The foundation of the bull market under this situation is still unstable.

Of course, this round of expected speculation on the core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry', as well as the market trend's influence on the overall market, are indeed worthy of great attention, but one of the speculations is' On the new era and the Maritime Silk Road's macroeconomic strategic expectations, one speculates on the expectation that the central bank will cut interest rates and reserve requirement ratios, or even "the macroeconomic policy will shift to an overall easing," and the other speculates on "increased defense spending." There are expectations such as 'strengthening the army', 'reform and restructuring of military industry enterprises', 'asset restructuring of military industry enterprises', and 'securitization of military industry assets'. However, from a substantive analysis, these expectations are difficult to implement and realize, right?

Once it cannot be fulfilled, then this round of market...

It will look like a castle in the air without any substantial support. "

When Zheng Zhongming heard Deng Jialun's words, he did not rush to refute, but smiled and said: "Although it is difficult to implement the macroeconomic development strategy of 'New Era Road, Maritime Silk Road', it is the macro will of the top management. Even if it is difficult to realize it, we will continue to push forward, and the new market demand this will bring to the entire "big infrastructure" strategic plan is also real. Although it is difficult to realize it, it is not without room for imagination.

It is said that as long as there are expectations, there is room for the stock price to rise.

There is no doubt that there is such great policy support and strong long-term expectations for the future.

Even if it is difficult to cash out, it can still change the relevant valuation system in the entire "big infrastructure" main line industry.

Therefore, the core line of "big infrastructure", under this macroeconomic strategic planning concept, the mid- to long-term valuation system can be sustained.

Otherwise, in the past six months, there would not have been a huge group of major financial institutions worth hundreds of billions or more.

Bravely advance into this major main line area and carry out a large-scale and continuous increase in positions.

As for the core logic of the ‘big finance’ line.

As you said, what is being speculated is indeed the "big turn in macro-financial conditions." What is being speculated is the expectation that macro-financial conditions will shift from tightening to loosening, and it is also the expectation of a bull market.

You said that this expectation is difficult to fulfill, but that is not necessarily the case.

Although currently according to our news channels, no clear news has leaked out from within the central bank.

But these related rumors are definitely not groundless. Maybe someone is deliberately testing the market and leaking the news deliberately.

In fact, if you analyze it carefully...

Given the current domestic macroeconomic situation, the central bank may still adopt a monetary easing strategy.

After all, the Federal Reserve is facing a delay in economic recovery, and there is a high probability that it will not dare to directly step into the channel of raising interest rates in the near future.

This gives us time for domestic monetary policy to buffer.

Moreover, don’t forget that there are many smart people in the market, and there are even more smart funds.

Everyone uses real money to play and invest in it, so the actual market trend is basically caused by the combined efforts of various funds.

Since the ‘Big Finance’ line, the market trend is so strong.

Naturally, there is an inherent logic in it that is collectively recognized by the majority of investors in the market. We may not agree, but we must respect the development of the market and know how to follow the trend.

And the line of ‘military industry’.

In fact, compare the two core main lines of ‘big infrastructure’ and ‘big finance’.

The logic of the 'military industry' line is much clearer. In this sector, information disclosure has always been limited, and there are great uncertainties in performance. It is not easy to value, and there is no constant valuation standard. , so... although the logic is clearer, the market situation is more difficult to implement. "

"Mr. Zheng thinks the central bank's monetary policy shift is still a high probability event?" Deng Jialun asked.

Zheng Zhongming responded: "Whether it is a high probability event or not, this is about to enter December, and I believe the news will become clear soon."

"Then Mr. Zheng thinks the line of 'big finance' can continue to rise?" Deng Jialun continued to ask.

Zheng Zhongming responded: "Once a trend has been formed, it will not be easily reversed. With so many active funds in the market gathering on the main line of 'big finance', until the expectations are not completely clear, and the expectations are not fully realized, or completely disappointed, everyone will He won't leave easily.

What's more, driven by extreme long sentiment.

The bullish atmosphere in the market is getting stronger and stronger.

In addition, the financing balance and transaction volume of the two cities are still rising, which has given higher speculation expectations to the main line of 'big finance'.

So, will this line's market, and the upward trend, end easily?

Since the main funds of all parties in the market are doing this, they are all increasing their positions in the core main lines of "big finance", "big infrastructure" and "military industry".

If we don't fall behind others, we have to be forced to follow suit.

This is the market trend. We have no ability and no way to reverse it. So, the most correct way is to follow it as best we can. "

"Understood!" After listening to Zheng Zhongming's interpretation of the market, as well as the analysis of the specific investment logic of the three core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry', as well as market opinions, Deng Jialun couldn't help but click He nodded and responded, "In this case, we can only passively increase positions and go long. I hope that this wave... the Shanghai Stock Index can continue to exceed expectations, go out of an independent trend, and stand firm at 3500 points in one go, otherwise... 3500 This position is not stable, and I am always worried about the bullish logic of the market."