Rebirth of the investment era

"Afraid?" Zhang Guangnian was stunned for a moment, then joked with a smile, "You are just dissatisfied. The market is not good, so you always complain. The market is too good, so you still complain."

Liao Guanghua was not angry at Zhang Guangnian's teasing. Instead, he said seriously: "Old Zhang, don't you really think that the market has changed too fast in more than a month? Especially the explosive growth rate of transaction volume and the financing balance. Continuing to surge at a rapid rate, the transaction volume has increased from an average of 200 to 300 billion to an average of 900 billion now, and the financing balance has increased from more than 700 billion initially to more than 1.1 trillion now.

The explosive speed of this kind of energy...

I remember that in the last bull market, the market turnover increased incrementally by several times.

It will take at least half a year to catalyze it, but now it has been catalyzed to such an extent in less than a month. Isn't this...shocking?

There are also changes in market sentiment and investment confidence, which are also too rapid.

More than a month ago, when the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index failed to break through 3,000 points, the market's investment sentiment was obviously in a big divergence.

However, if you look at the current investment sentiment of the entire market, it has basically turned into a consistent bull market expectation sentiment.

This change of mood is really amazing.

Logically speaking, changes in market conditions, especially changes in investment confidence and capital, all take time to be digested slowly. But today's market...does not follow normal logic and development at all, so in my heart It's just a little bit unreliable.

I always feel that the foundation of this bull market is not that solid, and there are always some hidden dangers! "

"You are just unfounded." Zhang Guangnian chuckled, "When was the last bull market? In 2006 or 2007, right? What was the domestic environment like at that time? The dissemination of information and information was another What environment? And now...

Now is the era of mobile Internet.

The number of Internet users is not only several times larger than that in 2006 and 2007? It is simply an increase of ten times or dozens of times.

The speed of information dissemination on the Internet is at least dozens or even hundreds of times that of the paper media era.

In other words, the current speed of market information dissemination is no longer the same as before. Whether the market is negative or positive, the speed of fermentation and the speed of impact on investors are exponentially higher than before. When the speed of information influence increases geometrically.

The market conditions fluctuate, and it is difficult not to grow exponentially.

In other words, the emotional reaction to every move in the current market will be much more intense than before, and it must be much more intense to be normal.

And this further contributes to the ups and downs and trend changes in the market.

Also, due to the rapid acceleration of information dissemination, there are more and more smart funds in the market.

Moreover, the financial groups on the market have become much faster and more powerful in exploring opportunities and focusing on speculation than before.

So, looking at it all...

I think it is very normal that this bull market has broken out so rapidly, and that market volume, investment sentiment, and investment confidence have reversed so quickly.

Now that the market trend has been formed, the certainty of the bull market is getting higher and higher.

Then don't worry too much.

Since the position of 3500 points has been fully broken through and the historical holdup of the Shanghai Composite Index in the range of 3000 points to 3500 points has been fully released, it shows that the market's long consensus expectations are still very strong, and it also shows that the Shanghai Composite Index should not It's easy to fall back again. "

"I'm not worried about the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index falling back," Liao Guanghua said. "I'm worried that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index will rise too fast and the chip structure will be unstable, which will overdraw the market's long power."

Zhang Guangnian said with a smile: "The market has its own self-regulating ability. As market participants, when we cannot change the development of market trends, all we can do is follow the market trends and make adaptive investments and transactions. However, In the short to medium term, there will be no problems in terms of investment logic and expected development as the core lines that support the development of the market, such as 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', and 'military industry'. "

"Regarding the rumors circulating in the market that the central bank will cut interest rates and reserve requirement ratios in December, is there any relevant internal information?" I heard Zhang Guangnian talking about the short and medium term of the core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry' In terms of investment logic, Liao Guanghua paused for a while and then said, "The current line of 'big finance' is so radical, mainly due to the expectations brought about by this news. If the news cannot be fulfilled, the monetary policy in the macro market will turn If the expectations are true or false, then the subsequent market trend of the 'Big Finance' line will be very uncertain, at least... it should not be as smooth as it was during this period."

Zhang Guangnian responded: "According to the information I can find, I haven't heard of such a thing yet. Of course, some insiders have revealed that there is such an expectation, but there is no more precise information, but... it is very likely that it is approaching." At this end of the year, even if the central bank does not cut interest rates or reduce reserve requirements, there should be other measures to increase market liquidity. After all, given the current macroeconomic environment, monetary liquidity is still tight, and the short- and medium-term needs of many companies The financing environment has not changed much, and in terms of financial institutions, money is still relatively tight."

"Other measures to increase market liquidity will not have a big impact on the trend of the financial market." Liao Guanghua said, "The key is to let the investor groups inside and outside the market understand the overall reversal of the market's macro monetary and financial aspects. Only by providing signals can we continue to maintain the bull market pattern of the market and further open up the space for market speculation! If this expectation does not hold true, or it may be completely disappointed.

Then I guess...

The Shanghai Stock Index is at 3,500 points. If it continues to rise, it will be difficult to continue to break through.

After all, the current transaction volume of the two markets has exploded to about 900 billion, and the financing balance has also increased to about 1.1 trillion.

The amount of money pouring into the market is basically the full expression of the power of the bulls.

If macro-capital liquidity cannot be reversed and domestic expectations of monetary tightening cannot be fully transformed into expectations of monetary easing, then one of the major basic conditions supporting the bull market will be gone. Naturally, it will be difficult to have a larger investment risk appetite. High incremental capital groups continue to pour into the market.

There is not a large enough incremental capital group to continue to play a role.

If the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is at this position, it will be quite difficult to continue to create higher space and produce a more popular money-making effect. "

"The expectation that macro monetary policy will turn to a loose situation..." Zhang Guangnian continued, "If the Federal Reserve does not make any mistakes recently, it should still be a high probability. I think the current 'big financial' line is not going well. There is nothing wrong with it. Of course, the emotional progression on this core main line is indeed too fierce. Especially the short-term growth of the securities sector and the Internet financial sector should be said to far exceed the expectations of the majority of investors in the market. Very few people can Do you think that the indexes of these two major sectors can double in just one month?"

Liao Guanghua smiled and nodded, and continued: "It's really hard to imagine, but the most unimaginable thing, the most beyond everyone's expectations, should be the line of 'secondary new stocks', right? In the past month, the line of 'secondary new stocks' has Lines are really crazy, not to mention stocks that have doubled, stocks that have tripled or doubled, there are also stocks that have doubled.”

"The 'sub-new stock' sector is a complete carnival of hot money in the market." Zhang Guangnian said, "The performance of these new stocks listed in the second half of this year after listing is really shocking one after another. Who would have thought that the performance of these new stocks after listing is really ordinary." Can Bluestone Heavy Equipment's stock increase more than ten times after it is listed?"

Liao Guanghua chuckled and said: "Although the hot money speculation in the 'sub-new stock' line is crazy, it still has a relatively positive effect on stimulating the market. If it weren't for the 'Blue Stone Heavy Equipment' check, it was extremely exaggerated. Given the money-making effect and the height of the speculation, I estimate that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index will not break through to the high position of 3,500 points so quickly, and the market turnover volume will not increase so rapidly.

You will know by looking at the market trend in the second half of this year, from June to October.

During the period from June to October, the market conditions and profit-making effects of the two cities were actually not bad, led by the two core themes of "big infrastructure" and "military industry".

But in terms of the progress of emotions and the progress of incremental funds, they are completely incomparable with November. "

"That's for sure." Zhang Guangnian took over and continued, "I think this is also the reason why the regulators have basically let the hot money speculation in the market go unchecked in the past two months, right? After all, this requires emotion and increment. At the critical moment when capital groups are vigorously stimulating the market, resulting in a comprehensive bull market, regulators must also hope to use the hype of hot money groups and the exaggerated money-making effect of the market to bring about the entire bull market situation."

"In order to open up direct financing channels in the market and pave the way and lay the foundation for the registration system in the subsequent market, the current attitude of the regulatory authorities is definitely beyond doubt." Liao Guanghua said, "But everything is too much and too little is too little. At present, the macro-finance situation The big change has not really happened yet, but the incremental capital group in the market has already exploded to an extremely terrifying level. Both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have basically set a record high in transaction volume.

So many incremental capital groups have entered the market...

The nature of the funds that are pouring into the market and the sources of these funds are still very worthy of vigilance.

I feel that as the wave of market speculation continues to rise and the investment risk appetite of the entire market increases sharply, more and more leveraged funds are pouring in.

If we blindly allow the expansion of leveraged capital groups.

Then, if there is an extreme and huge adjustment in the subsequent market and leveraged funds are forced to ebb, the market situation will be very tragic.

Maybe there will be systemic market liquidity risk problems! "

Zhang Guangnian was slightly startled when he heard Liao Guanghua's words. He paused and then replied: "It shouldn't be... right? Overall, the current market risks should still be controllable, and compared with the global financial market, we are a big A The overall valuation is still relatively low, and extreme sustained adjustments are unlikely to occur.

Of course, if the market's leveraged funds are allowed to continue to expand rapidly.

At the same time, the market conditions are also rising rapidly, and the valuation level of the entire market has begun to enter the bubble stage from a reasonable range.

Of course, the risk still exists.

But by that time, as market regulators, leaders should also realize this, right?

Generally speaking, I think this... is not an issue we should consider at the moment. We just need to analyze the market and analyze the investment direction. "

"Haha... That's true." Liao Guanghua laughed loudly, "Whenever the sky falls, there will always be tall people holding it up. We short people really don't have to worry so much."

Zhang Guangnian nodded, pondered for a moment, and couldn't help but change the topic and said: "Old Liao, the main fund products you manage, in addition to the holding chips of the core line of 'big finance', the holdings of the 'big infrastructure' line There should be a lot of chips left, right?"

Liao Guanghua said: "The holding chips of the core line of 'infrastructure' have been reduced a lot. What's wrong? Is it possible that the core concept theme line of 'New Era Road, Maritime Silk Road', or related policies, Are there any new big trends?”

Zhang Guangnian responded: "I'm not sure, I just think that there is still a lot of potential in the 'big infrastructure' line, and regarding the macroeconomic strategic concept of 'the road to the new era, the Maritime Silk Road', its policy support is , there have been many economic strategic plans over the years, but I have never seen such a vigorous one. It is estimated that this line will be continued to be implemented as an important economic development line.

However, although there is no big new news about the macroeconomic strategic concept of "New Era Road, Maritime Silk Road", there is a lot of new news about "reform and reorganization of central and state-owned enterprises". .

I heard that the State Council is promoting more "Mergers and Reorganizations of Central and State-owned Enterprises" projects and is preparing to integrate resources to better solve the problems of overcapacity and industry development in many industries. I think this investment direction should continue to be paid attention to, maybe There will also be a market intensity similar to that from June to October. "

"Hmm!" Liao Guanghua thought for a moment, nodded, and said, "I've heard a lot about this, okay, I'll pay attention to it in the future, and appropriately cut profits on some of the chips in the main line of 'Big Finance'. Then focus on the stocks of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises that are expected to 'merge and reorganize'."

"Do you think those stocks have this kind of 'mergers and reorganization expectations?'" After a pause, Liao Guanghua asked again.

Zhang Guangnian thought for a while and responded: "It's hard to say. There should be strong expectations in fields such as automobiles, high-speed rail, steel, cement... etc. As for the specific targets, we can only look at the news, but recently there have been A few checks have gone quite strongly, and I don’t know if there is any news.”

"You mean 'Huagong International', 'Huaguo Construction', 'Huaguo Railway Construction', 'Huaguo Communications Construction', 'Huaguo South Locomotive', 'Huaguo CNR'...this batch of 'Huaguo' prefixes" "The main line weight stocks of infrastructure, right?" Liao Guanghua said, "The recent trend of these stocks has indeed exceeded expectations, and looking at the transaction data disclosed by the market recently, some time ago, they have been in the main areas of 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry' The funds of the 'Yu Hang Department' that had significantly reduced their positions and focused on the main line of 'big finance' have come back. It is indeed a bit evil, but I haven't heard any news." (End of Chapter)