Reborn Entrepreneurial Giant

Qu Li originally only wanted to give a speech to the employees of Jumei and Glory, but unexpectedly, his little action caused a big reaction. A certain department arranged a team to record the whole process. It is said that he wanted to make a record. Youku Video was going to do a live broadcast. Others Well-known media have sent people over.

There are many people who want to participate in Qu Li’s New Year’s Eve speech, such as a few friends in the film and television industry, Dai Zhikang who met at the event, Dangdang couple, well-known economists, venture capitalists such as Sequoia, IDG, Dinghui, and Hong Kong Yi Dapao and other seniors, including Rebus, who hadn't shown up for a long time.

This can't be blamed on them. It is generally believed that Qu Li is arrogant and difficult to deal with, but he has repeatedly created miracles. Even if Jumei's stock price continues to fall, no one will underestimate him. Although there are rumors that he was taught by the old world, but after all Just rumors.

Qu Li's ingenious New Year's Eve speech was called "Friends of Time". It is said that all companies that were touted by this program were unlucky. Later, he stopped watching Fatty Luo. Although this person's persistence is admirable, his knowledge And the vision is really not good.

In addition to Qu Li, the keynote speaker, Lu Qi, who is about to take over as CEO of Jumei, Wang Jian, head of Juyun Technology, Tan Lijun, head of Jumei supply chain (including logistics), Li Yinan, CTO of Glory, and Wang Chuanfu, BYD .

Although Qu Li doesn't like BYD's diversification of development paths, but Chuanfu's persistence and hard work are quite admirable.

"Friends of Time" started on time at 8 o'clock on December 31, 2008, and the speech was held at the Motorola Building in Beijin, which is now renamed the Glory Building.

At the beginning, of course, I will introduce the origin of the New Year’s Eve Speech, and why it is called "Friends of Time". Of course, Qu Li will not say that he is trying to pretend, there must be fake introductions, so I will not explain them one by one.

"There is a point in the book "Fools Who Walk Randomly": the so-called successful people may be created by random events. Success is probably due to luck. Don't overestimate your ability and wisdom."

"There is a short story in the book: Give the computer monkeys to write, as long as there are enough monkeys and the time is long enough, there will always be a monkey who can write "Homer's Epic", and of course "Romance of the Three Kingdoms"..."

"I agree with the point of view in this book. Since success is accidental, as long as the time is long enough, most people will be able to succeed. So friends who want to be successful, choose to be friends of time and give yourself more A lot of patience and focus."

Next, Qu Li reviewed some major events that happened in 2008, from domestic to foreign, from society to economy. Unfortunately, he couldn’t say anything. Harmony and beasts appeared. I don’t know which word was taboo, so four to five hundred words were deleted.

"I thought of an explanation: "Asymmetric Risk", which introduces two concepts, symmetry and risk. Symmetry is the consequences of your actions, and you bear them yourself. This is symmetry. Risk is the uncertainty of purpose and result... ..."

"Symmetrical surnames are a very simple truth. I even think that this is one of the basic principles of human society, including the establishment of many laws, all to establish symmetrical surnames in interactions between people. For example, the well-known After Liu Bang, Emperor Gaozu of the Han Dynasty entered Guanzhong, he made an agreement with the people of Qin State in three chapters: the murderer shall die, and the wounding and robber shall be punished."

"Modern society is becoming more and more complex, but the basic principles will not change, and symmetrical surnames are also required..."

"The emergence of e-commerce has broken information asymmetry to a certain extent and made transactions more symmetrical. Therefore, e-commerce will inevitably achieve huge development in China. If combined with national policies, domestic Internet users are expected to increase to 500 million in five years. The total retail sales of e-commerce on all platforms is expected to exceed 1 trillion. This is a huge opportunity..."

"Back to our topic just now, since there is symmetry, there are naturally asymmetric risks. For example, in the subprime mortgage crisis that broke out this year, those Wall Street elites can get bonuses and dividends every year, but the financial crisis only breaks out every seven or eight years. , but the damage they cause has to be borne by the whole society.

"Certain groups have obtained benefits but do not have to bear the corresponding risks, but have transferred the risks through various means. This is asymmetric risk."

Qu Li has no experience in public speaking, so I found someone to learn some temporarily, but I still have a lot of good things. The author of "Asymmetric Risk" is Nicholas Taleb. He has written some very powerful books. Women also have huge influence, such as "Fool Walking Randomly", "Black Swan", "The World of Black Swan", "Wisdom of Random Survival", "Anti-Fragility", and this "Asymmetric Risk".

Many people think that economists are useless. For example, Ma Yun said that these people are pure nonsense, but after reading Nicholas Taleb's book, it should be clear that Ma Yun and other bigwigs' "unlearned skills" may be another kind of ignorance.

It is very difficult for ordinary people to understand the real world, which is why we need to learn. The various concepts proposed by these outstanding talents are tools for us to understand the world. For example, "entropy" in physics, if you know "entropy increase", you know that disorder in the universe is eternal, order is the pursuit of human society, and you can understand "transaction costs" and so on.

"How do asymmetric risks arise? I think it may be brought about by the division and division of labor in society, and this is the best way to make the world prosperous and rich, and it is also the basis for the operation of a market economy..."

"Is there a way to solve the "asymmetric risk"? Of course there is: that is to restore the symmetry of the entire human society through institutional design as much as possible."

"Is there a specific way? My answer is still: risk sharing and time."

"Risk sharing can deal with uncertainty in the real world, so what does that have to do with time?"

"The whole 'risk-sharing' system evolves itself by weeding out the losers who make mistakes, which is the power of selection in evolution."

"So how should ordinary people grow up in this uncertain world and how to take advantage of asymmetric risks? My plan is: painful learning. Find the field you are good at and bring value to others.

Also, don't trust or follow the advice of people who consult for a living, unless they will be punished for their bad advice. To put it bluntly: the vast majority of economists, security analysts, and success gurus don't exist necessary..."

Originally, I wanted to predict that the room would rise in the next few years, and suggested that people who watched his speech buy a fang, but after being hit by the crab monster several times in a row, he gave up and started to write nonsense:

"Letting those who set the rules of the game bear the risk, and let both parties involved in the game share the risk, is a good recipe for many economic and social problems..."