Simulation: Great Power Technology

On March 18, 20xx, the countdown to the ground test of the engine, 64 hours.

On the other side of the sea, an urgent enlarged meeting is being held. In addition to the people from the Strategic Analysis Office, there are many experts and scholars in related fields who are also invited to participate.

Their meeting this time has only one topic, which is to analyze the latest declassified project information of the Huaxia sedan chair project team, formulate coping strategies, and prepare for the upcoming Nantianmen project negotiation.

The first to speak was a scholar named Jenny in the expert group. He is over 60 years old and is a veteran expert in the field of aviation development. He is outstanding in both technology and overall vision. .

"Cough, everyone already knows the situation. The other party's sedan chair project team has disclosed their latest progress."

"According to the public information, they have completed the first stage goal of the Nantianmen project and the sedan chair project, which is to successfully trial-produce the first commercial aircraft engine with a large bypass ratio."

"At present, we don't know anything about the parameters and performance of this engine, but based on the law of technological progress and the inherent technical foundation of the other party, I have some judgments here."

After saying a few words, Jenny took a sip from the coffee cup, and then continued:

"First of all, I think the other party's engine is not a superficial project, but a mature industrial product that can actually be used, and has even reached mass production. There is no doubt about this."

"I think everyone here may say that it is impossible to manufacture a mature engine with a large bypass ratio in such a short period of time with the technical strength of the other party, but what I want to tell you is that our intelligence system It has basically no effect on Huaxia, so we don't know how many bullets they put in a gun that was hidden in their pockets."

"We should take the worst-case scenario and assume they have a six-round full-bore Colt pistol in their pocket."

"Only in this way can we respond with the utmost vigilance to the unexpected situations that may occur later."

"Do you have any different opinions on this point of view?"

Jenny looked around, and as he expected, no one in the entire venue shook his head, which made him feel a little relieved.

In recent years, although the vigilance of the other side has been greatly improved, the contempt for them in technology has not changed. These old people who lie on the credit book always think that they still have the most advanced technology The technology of the whole world holds the technological hegemony of the whole world, but they never thought that this situation has been quietly changing a long time ago.

But now, under the impact of Huaxia several times, this situation has changed to a certain extent.

This is a good thing.

Only by recognizing your own problems can you continue to move forward.

After a moment, he continued:

"The above is my first inference. This inference is based on a non-technical level. What I will talk about next will be a technical-level judgment."

"At present, the other party mainly has several bottlenecks in the field of aero-engine, these bottlenecks are: materials, processing flow and technology, assembly technology and simulation technology."

"As a scholar, from my technical experience, these bottlenecks are most likely to break through in two aspects: materials and simulation technology. Breakthroughs in these two aspects will also greatly improve their performance in the field of aviation. technical level.”

"As we all know, the other party currently has a public cj-1000ax large bypass ratio engine project with a target thrust of 25 tons."

"Then, after superimposing the impact of technological breakthroughs, I think the engine thrust of the other party's project should be between 30 and 50 tons, and the maximum will not exceed 50 tons."

"This is my judgment based on the objective laws of technological development. Although this thrust does not seem to be advanced, I also want to remind you that our most advanced ge-9x commercial aircraft engine has a peak thrust of only 80 tons. "

"And it took us only ten years to break through from 40 tons to 80 tons."

"This means that the gap between the other party's aviation technology and ours has narrowed from 30 years to 10 years, and the actual time they spent is actually less than 5 years."

"So, based on the above two judgments, my suggestion is that we should actively cooperate with each other within a limited range, and don't mind the gain or loss of interests in a short period of time."

"As long as we can reach a cooperation, it means that we can at least develop in sync with each other, and keep the final ten-year gap from shortening."

"That's my suggestion, are there any disagreements?"

Jenny looked around again, this time with a hand raised.

It's Eisen, the head of the Strategic Analysis Office this year.

After confirming that he could speak, Eisen said in a low voice:

"Mr. Jenny, I respect and trust your professionalism, but, from my intuition, you may still underestimate the other party this time."

"Do you remember the last time we failed on the chip? At that time, we also thought that the other party's technology would not be too advanced, but in the end? What they came up with was 3nm technology, and we were beaten because of lack of preparation. The opponent was caught off guard.”

"How much market we have lost on chips, do we have to make the same mistake again?"

After listening to his words, Jenny sighed.

This Eisen was probably already frightened by the other party.

He was still too young, and after one or two failures, his mentality had changed, and he even started talking about so-called intuition at such an important meeting.

This is definitely not what a decision maker should do.

Thinking of this, Jenny said:

"Eisen, I understand your concerns, but at the same time, I also want to remind you that aero engines and chips are completely different, the latter may still have major development progress due to a time-intensive technological breakthrough, but in aero engines field, absolutely impossible.”

"Like I said, they may have made a breakthrough in one area, but what about the other areas? Turbofan blade design, thermal tbc coating, structural strength design, assembly process, even tolerance control, thermal element design, All of these require a wealth of experience and technical accumulation to achieve.”

"Even if I hand them a drawing now, do you think they can reproduce the engine? Impossible."

"They have to have hot and cold bi-state maps, have manufacturing documentation, have material distribution documentation, have fan blade construction models... In short, there are so many indicators that affect the performance of an engine, I don't believe they can do it all at once. breakthrough."

"So, I still stand by my point of view, which is that the other side may have made great progress, but this progress will not be enough to affect our dominance, so we can't presume too much for the subsequent negotiations. resources and conditions.”

"Like I said, we can imagine each other's pockets are filled with a Colt revolver, but we can't imagine that the pockets are m416 assault rifles, because there is no pocket that can fit Rifle, this is an objective law."

After listening to Jenny's words, Eisen shook his head again.

He wanted to say something to refute, but he couldn't find an argument for a while, and finally he had to say a little unwillingly:

"Maybe, they can pull out not only pistols, rifles, but even anti-tank missiles from their pockets?"

As soon as these words were said, everyone in the venue laughed.

No one really listened to his advice. In the eyes of these people, they were like a fool who worried that the stars would fall and that the ocean would rewind.

Eisen sighed and fell silent again.

He no longer has the spirit to argue with reason.

As far as he can say, he has already finished in the few words just now.

Since no one was listening, he had no other choice.

However, in his heart, he still firmly believed that the pockets of these rabbits were definitely more than just revolvers.