The Pentium Era - South to North

Since the beginning of 2007, one word has frequently appeared in the media: excess liquidity, too much money in the market, and there must be a source. So the stock market and the real estate market quietly started.

In 2007, China's stock market rose with a short-squeeze style, constantly breaking various records. The stock index, trading volume, and the number of account openings hit new highs.

The Shanghai Composite Index opened at the beginning of the year and rose from 2,728 points on January 4 to a high of 6,124 points on October 16, an increase of more than 100%. For the first time, the Chinese stock market led the world stock market.

In May 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index was only 1,000 points. At that time, the total market value of outstanding shares in Shenzhen and Shanghai was about 1.2 trillion yuan, and the total market value of stocks was about 3.5 trillion yuan.

By October 2007, when the stock index reached its peak, the combined market capitalization of the two cities was nearly 30 trillion, equivalent to an additional doubling of China's GDP in two years.

The key to the problem is that if the increased wealth is a real asset, it can absorb excess currency and improve the situation of excess liquidity.

But in fact, all these increased wealth are financial assets with high liquidity. These assets have a quasi-currency function, which greatly increases the actual purchasing power of society and aggravates excess liquidity.

One of the most classic stories circulated at that time was that a person invested 100,000 yuan in the stock market at the beginning of the year, which later turned into 300,000 yuan, and then used this "virtual" money to buy a house.

Liu Ligan and Tan Shuzhen had a premonition of this change from the beginning of the year. During the Spring Festival, although the actual transactions of the sales departments of their various projects did not increase much, the number of people viewing the houses increased significantly, and they could even be filled with people. describe.

Liu Ligan and Tan Shuzhen said that they had been bored for too long and could no longer hold it in any longer.

Liu Ligan and Tan Shuzhen asked the sales departments of the following branches and various projects in Hangzhou to prepare for the arrival of a new wave of sales peaks.

Although the general managers of each branch and the heads of several project departments in Hangzhou were doubtful about this, they still got ready.

In April, exciting news came. When Vanke Charm City opened, the long-lost thought of queuing up to buy a house reappeared. Many people even took a small bench and went to the sales department to start buying a house two days in advance. Got in line.

The money earned in the stock market began to overflow from the stock market and flow into the real estate market. The excess liquidity began to hit the banks of Hangzhou's real estate market.

On May 13, the first phase of another project of Liu Ligan and his team in Qianjiang New Town, Splendid China·Splendid Flower City, opened for sale, triggering late-night queues. The first batch of 738 suites achieved a 100% reservation rate on the opening day.

Half a month later, in the early morning of May 28, the second batch of more than 830 houses in Splendid Flower City poured out, once again triggering all-night queues to buy houses.

In just half a month, Splendid Flower City sold more than 1,500 houses, which became a miracle.

The record of 662 units booked in a single day set during the opening period of Splendid Flower City was not broken even in the "mad cow" year of 2009.

The crazy Chinese stock market in 2006 turned into a machine for making wealth. Ningbo Youngor, a cross-border real estate company from the clothing industry, made more than 10 billion yuan in the capital market at that time, which gave Youngor a strong position in the land market. Soaring bullishness.

When the stock market reached its peak in 2007, Vanke's market value once exceeded 200 billion yuan, far exceeding the combined market value of the four largest real estate companies in the United States.

The hot sales of Splendid Flower City was a miracle for the real estate industry in Hangzhou in 2007. Another miracle was created by the wealthy Ningbo Youngor in Hangzhou.

On July 9, at the land auction in Hangzhou, Ningbo Youngor spent 1.476 billion yuan to win the "Hangzhou Business School" plot on Xueyuan Road at a floor price of 15,712 yuan per square meter, once again setting a new record in Hangzhou that year. The city’s floor land price record.

On the night that Youngor auctioned the land, a nearby building was urgently closed, and it was reported that the price increased by 6,000 yuan/square meter overnight.

Since then, house prices in Hangzhou have risen across the board, and the chain reaction of Youngor’s high-priced land purchase has gradually begun to show.

The late-night queues to buy houses in Splendid Flower City and the sky-high prices for Youngers were two typical expressions of the Hangzhou property market in 2007.

The former started and heralded the popularity of Hangzhou's real estate market in 2007. Since then, the monthly transaction volume of Hangzhou's real estate market has hit new highs, and the stock of housing has dropped sharply. This has led to the phenomenon of holding back the market, which has become a temporary boom.

The sky-high price of the Ningbo Youngor Hang Commercial Court land plot is a typical example of the crazy land market in 2007, and is also a typical example of land prices pushing up housing prices.

Stimulated by excess liquidity and frequent land kings, Hangzhou's property market began to go crazy in June and July. By October, the stock market reached a high point but then became weak and continued to trade sideways. Many sensitive speculators had a premonition. The stock market has reached its peak, and they have withdrawn more funds from the stock market and invested it in the real estate market, setting off another wave of climax in the real estate market.

The real estate fair in October 2007 turned into a "real estate fair". Due to the recession in the previous two years, developers did not open many new projects and had very few existing houses on hand. Everyone began to hoard them collectively. I am holding on to my house and not selling it, waiting for the price to rise.

The developers' collective bid to block the sale aroused public outrage. Everyone scolded them, "If you don't sell your house, why are you attending a real estate fair? Is this real estate fair an exhibition?"

The competent authorities went door-to-door to every showroom and told everyone not to cover their plates, but with little success.

The competent authorities urgently summoned the bosses of major real estate companies together and held a symposium. At the meeting, the bosses promised not to cover up the market. However, after they returned, they still went their own way and closed the market. Mobile phones and people also disappeared from the exhibition. People from the relevant departments called them, but they couldn't be found.

As for the reply left in the showroom, we did not receive a notice that it could be sold. In other words, we contacted the boss and the boss said yes, then it was OK. This contact lasted until the closing of the housing fair, making the relevant departments furious. .

Li Yong even called Liu Ligan and told him, "Gangzi, you are not allowed to cover the market."

Liu Ligan said okay, we will definitely not cover the market.

Facing the entire crazy real estate market, Liu Ligan felt a kind of fear. He felt that it was not people who wanted to treat the real estate industry as a "urinal," but you, who voluntarily became the urinal. Urine has created this crazy real estate market to force government departments to take action.

I really don’t remember to fight.

Liu Ligan told his subordinates to sell whatever they could sell as soon as possible, as the situation would soon change. Although the subordinates felt reluctant to part with it, they had no choice but to do what the boss said.

Splendid China became the only real estate company that did not sell any properties at the real estate fair, and all the houses were snapped up.

Li Yong came over and saw Liu Ligan. Li Yong said, yes, pole, you are interesting enough.

Liu Ligan smiled and said, that's how I can embarrass you.

In a sense, for the property market, "liquidity is a success or a failure." Excess liquidity not only pushes up the prices of assets centered on real estate and stocks, but also creates inflationary pressure, and the latter Especially not tolerated by the government.

Therefore, what Liu Ligan was worried about happened, and the country began a drastic liquidity tightening policy.

A game between regulatory authorities and crazy markets has begun.

On May 18, the People's Bank of China announced that starting from June 5, 2007, it would raise the RMB deposit reserve ratio for deposit-taking financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points. Institutional RMB deposit and loan benchmark interest rates. This is the first time in the past 10 years that my country has simultaneously announced an increase in the deposit reserve ratio and the benchmark deposit and loan interest rates.

In order to standardize the transaction order of the real estate market and purify the market environment, the state and local governments once again tightened monetary policy and launched a rare "financial combination punch." Since then, the central bank has raised interest rates 6 times and raised the reserve requirement ratio 10 times, showing that it will not withdraw its troops until excess liquidity is eliminated.

Strict control policies specifically targeted at real estate were also introduced one after another at the end of the year when developers’ “blocking of sales” was at its worst.

On September 27, the Central Bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission jointly issued a notice requiring strict management of housing consumption loans. For those who have used loans to purchase a house and apply to purchase a second or more houses (inclusive), the down payment ratio shall not be less than 40%. The interest rate shall not be lower than 1.1 times the benchmark interest rate of the same grade during the same period.

On December 11, the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued the "Supplementary Notice on Strengthening Commercial Real Estate Credit Management", clarifying that the new housing loan policy will be implemented on a "household" basis. The clarification of the identification standards for second homes will greatly reduce speculative transactions in real estate.

Tight money, coupled with the continued contraction of liquidity, caused the crazy Hangzhou property market to come to an end at the end of the year. Transactions once fell to freezing point, and single-digit daily transaction volume was not uncommon, pouring pressure on the extremely hot-headed market. What was served was not cold water, but ice cubes.

After that, when developers came to their senses and concentrated on promoting sales at the end of the year, transaction volume began to stabilize, but it was already a far cry from the "craziness" of a few months ago.

Hangzhou's property market ushered in 2008 in a downturn.

Liu Ligan said with emotion that the year 2007 was a textbook-like vivid lesson on excess liquidity and anti-excess liquidity. However, it seemed that everyone did not learn anything. In this market, as long as there is a slight chance, Will still fight back.

Tan Shuzhen said that counterattack is in line with human nature. Who doesn’t want to pursue profits and who doesn’t want to maximize benefits?

When the two people talked like this, they felt that this problem seemed to have no solution, and it would stir up the nerves of the market every year.

"This is fucking exciting." Liu Ligan said.

By the end of 2007, the crazy Chinese stock market came to an abrupt end. What everyone was talking about was no longer whether the stock market would fall, but when.

Thank you for the reward of two fishes at one time and three o'clock in the middle of the night! Thank you Shi Yitan and Qdragon for your monthly votes! Thanks for all the votes and reading! I wish you all good health!