rebirth of change

In the past month, the Hong Kong stock market has continued to decline. Chen Kangjie knew in advance that international speculators headed by Soros were secretly ambush a large number of short-selling positions in Hong Kong stock index futures, and the main source of profit would come from here.Since this short stock index contract cannot cause an abnormal increase in the daily stock index futures trading volume, it takes a relatively long time to disperse and enter.The transaction margin of stock index futures is very small, basically only 5% of the transaction amount is required, so the transaction amount can be enlarged to the greatest extent.

Correspondingly, Chen Kangjie is also constantly ambush to buy a large number of short Hong Kong stock index futures, and both sides choose to settle in April, and the settlement date of Hong Kong Hang Seng Index futures in April is April 28, in other words, this day It will be the critical point of the two sides fighting.

In order to obtain the maximum profit on stock index futures, the attacking party must attack the most real Hong Kong dollar and the stock market.

Among the three targets that international speculators can attack, the Hong Kong dollar is the most real. The so-called real is compared with stocks and stock index futures.The most practical attack is the most difficult. Compared with attacking the British pound, when the Hong Kong economy does not have too many weaknesses, attacking the Hong Kong dollar and causing the market to expect the decoupling of the pegged exchange rate between the Hong Kong dollar and the U.S. dollar will require a higher price (the health of the Hong Kong dollar pegged exchange rate to an extent far greater than the healthy strength of the pound when it was attacked).However, the benefits obtained are not large. Even if the pegged exchange rate is broken, the health of the Hong Kong economy cannot reach the level of attacking the Thai baht and forcing the Thai baht to depreciate.

However, it is necessary to attack the Hong Kong dollar, because shaking the linked exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar can truly cause a general panic in the Hong Kong market and shake investors' expectations of the Hong Kong economy.Moreover, since the previous attacks on the currencies of other Asian countries have been successful, there is an expectation in the market that the Hong Kong dollar will be attacked, and international speculators must take advantage of this expectation.Even if it's a feint, even if it's a feint with real money.

Compared with the Hong Kong dollar, the real component of the stock is reduced, and the virtual component is increased. Why do we say that, because what is traded or speculated on the stock market is the future development expectation of each listed company. Although there is an evaluation of the normal operation of the company, Valuation is more based on the measurement of the benefits that the company can bring to investors in the next few years.To put it bluntly, it is to speculate on the future.If the future is bleak.The valuation will drop, and the holders will sell.

Factors affecting the stock price include the company's own operating conditions, including the prediction of the future development of the industry in which it is located, and the economic expectations of the country and region where it is located also greatly affect the evaluation of the company's stock value.Especially in a region where there is no foreign exchange control and no restrictions on foreign investors, because the income of the enterprise is in Hong Kong dollars, if the Hong Kong dollar depreciates, when foreign investors use the future US dollar to Hong Kong dollar exchange rate to evaluate the income, they find that even if the Hong Kong dollar income does not decrease, once Converted into US dollars, it actually decreases. Once this expectation is formed, investors will reduce their investment in listed companies in Hong Kong. To put it bluntly, they will sell the stocks of Hong Kong-listed companies.

Therefore, if you want to manipulate the stock market to fall, you must attack the Hong Kong dollar.As long as there is no problem with the operation of the listed company and the future development of the industry, an attack on the exchange rate is the only way.

Starting from February 200, the other party first chose to suppress the Hong Kong stock market. Although the attack on the exchange rate would be the only way, they had to suppress the Hong Kong stock market to a suitable position before eating it.On February [-], when the Hong Kong stock market opened, it fell by more than [-] points in one day.

In fact, since the outbreak of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, affected by the general environment, it is difficult for the Hong Kong stock market to fully persist. In July 1997, the Hong Kong stock market was still above 7 points. However, after half a year of volatility, the Hong Kong stock market has already It fell below 1 points. In other words, in the past six months, nearly 5000 billion Hong Kong dollars have been evaporated in the Hong Kong stock market.

It's just that this point is not yet the threshold for international speculators to launch a formal attack.Of course, the decline in Hong Kong stocks was not entirely caused by international speculators, and there were also their own market reasons. Their participation only added fuel to the fire, making the decline in Hong Kong stocks look like normal market behavior.

"Xiaojie, should we take some measures? The Hong Kong stock market has fallen by 190 points today, and nearly 400 billion Hong Kong dollars have disappeared again." On the night before Western Valentine's Day in 1998, Chen Kangjie just came to his office in the New World Center Then I received a call from Huang Zhenhua.

"Don't worry, these are just a prelude. I'm watching the trend of the Hong Kong stock market today," Chen Kangjie stared at the computer in front of him, holding a cup of tea and said calmly.

School started on February [-]th and [-]th, and classes started on Monday, February [-]th. Therefore, Chen Kangjie could stay in the New World Center for these few days.

At this time, he was not the only one in this office, but also a team of six assistants, all of whom were outstanding financial experts and mathematicians. Two of them, Chen Kangjie, had known each other since 1989, and the other four were Han Geng and The one selected by Ouyang Zhenhua is absolutely trustworthy.

The name of these six people is currently the investment consultant of Coy Company. In fact, they will keep an eye on the changes in the world's major markets, especially the Hong Kong market, in Chen Kangjie's office every day. If there is any abnormality, they will report to Chen Kangjie. All stay in the office make up.

"How can I not be in a hurry, Hong Kong has only returned to China for half a year, and we are facing such a difficult situation. We are facing great pressure from international public opinion. Now many media are saying that the reason why the Hong Kong stock market has fallen sharply is because of investment. Those who don’t have confidence in Hong Kong after the reunification think that a socialist government cannot manage a capitalist free metropolis well,” Huang Zhenhua’s voice was loud and slow, and he did not seem anxious as he said.

It is impossible for a leader at the vice-state level to be jittery when encountering a little pressure like ordinary people. Calmness has become their biggest symbol. If things are unstable, it is difficult to take on important responsibilities.

"Isn't this nonsense, I haven't paid much attention to media news recently, but... If there is such a trend of thought, it's normal and not worth making a fuss about," Chen Kangjie said halfway, pausing for a while to think Then Shen Sheng continued.

"Normal? That's normal? How do you understand it?" Huang Zhenhua asked.

"Of course, isn't it normal for Western countries to have negative news about us? Besides, this is not just a war in the financial field. The economic base determines the superstructure, which will naturally involve the political and propaganda fields. The emergence of this trend of thought, in fact They want to play up a false image of Hong Kong's decline in the entire public opinion field, which will cause more panic in the market. When everyone is skeptical of Hong Kong, it will be beneficial to them to attack Hong Kong's financial market. Yes," Chen Kangjie said calmly.

"It makes sense, it makes sense," said Huang Zhenhua on the other end of the phone, shaking his head while leaning on the sofa.

"There is currently no way to deal with this situation, especially it is very difficult for the central government to deal with it. Fighting international propaganda wars has never been our forte. It can only be handled by the SAR government itself. Only by repelling these bandits, Hong Kong's financial market After returning to life, all speeches will be self-defeating," Chen Kangjie suggested.

Chen Kangjie's words were a little harsh, but that was the truth.In the field of international public opinion, we have very little right to speak, and the direction of international public opinion is dominated by Western societies, which firmly control the right to speak of public opinion through a series of major news organizations.

It will not be a one-day effort to change this situation.The ability to publicize public opinion is a major manifestation of soft power. In addition to reforming our institutional system, innovating our methods, and going out of our thinking, what is more important is that our national strength must be strong enough. Otherwise, no one cares about what we say What.

We can firmly control domestic public opinion and propaganda through a series of administrative means. Internationally, we are indeed still very weak.Not to mention anything else, Xinhua News Agency, CCTV, People's Daily and other news media have not really gone out. Their voices and comments are rarely paid attention to and cited by Western media circles. It is very difficult to get the right to speak in information dissemination. It might be much better in a few 20 years.

"Then let the Hong Kong market sink like this?" Huang Zhenhua asked after thinking for a while.

"Under the current situation, this is the only way to go. They must see hope before they can make heavy bets. Only then will they be hurt all at once, and they will not dare to covet them any more. This is like a battle. If we launch a counter-offensive now, we will form a situation of positional warfare. Not only will it take a long time, but both sides will suffer a lot of losses. The most important thing is that such a situation will cause great harm to Hong Kong. Therefore, we can only use our positions Find a way to turn the war into a war of encirclement and annihilation. To do this, we must pay some losses in the early stage, abandon the outer defense line, and only put all the strength of the enemy in before we can annihilate them in one fell swoop. Come back, and end this crisis as quickly as possible. This is my strategy. I know you will be under a lot of pressure, but if you believe me, you can only do this. Maybe you will all be over in a month or two. You have to live with this kind of pressure," Chen Kangjie said tirelessly in order to secure Huang Zhenhua's heart and the heart of the Central Committee.

It's not that Chen Kangjie didn't communicate with Huang Zhenhua about his thoughts, but that when the actual situation arises, his thoughts will increase.Chen Kangjie understands their pressure, but at this time there is no retreat, and he can only proceed according to the established strategy.

"Of course we believe in you. The Secretary of the Communist Party of China has also told me this. Otherwise, I would have to listen to you. I won't ask any more questions in the future. Just follow your decision."