This director needs to apologize

Chapter 358: Retirement in Advance

Most of the industry leaders and bosses in the conference room today are around fifty, with a few younger ones in their forties. These people have all experienced the bleak years of Chinese cinema.

Therefore, Chen Yiming's theory of "if you don't watch it, you don't have to watch it" really subverts their understanding. If the audience is so easy to serve, why did they come after all the trouble and effort in the past?

Immediately, a boss in the audience shouted and questioned, "Director Chen, I don't agree with what you said. The entertainment market has always voted with their feet. Can we still tie the audience into the cinema?"
Even if the box office in the first week is increased through various means, as soon as the negative reputation of the audience spreads after watching the movie, there will be sudden death scenes. This is not without such examples.

You cannot be unconventional when predicting the future. As someone who has experienced it, I would like to advise young people to stay down to earth. "

The doubters certainly have their reasons. In the past few years, a lot of money from outside the industry has entered the industry, and they have indeed contributed to many "epic-level bad movies" that have been around for a long time. They are classic jokes that must be included in the film industry dinner party. You can tell by the way the bosses nod or smile that these words have reached their hearts.

But Chen Yiming didn't care. After all, they were not experienced people, and it was normal for them not to know that reality was more mysterious than theory.

He responded with a smile, "This is just my opinion, and I don't force everyone to agree. I personally think that experts have underestimated the size and growth of the Chinese film market.

Based on the calculation of a single movie ticket of 50 yuan, 14 billion people watch a movie once a year, which is already a scale of 700 billion, more than twice the current size, making it the world's largest movie market.

What if it’s once a month? Then we have to multiply it by 12. If it’s once a week, multiply it by 4.

Now do you still think that those three types of people who are insulated from movies will not go to cinemas to watch movies? There is a newly built cinema at your doorstep, and the ticket prices are surprisingly down-to-earth after paying for the tickets. Driven by the country's long holiday economy, isn't it possible to just watch movies if you don't travel?
My estimate is that as the new round of construction starts from 2016 to 17, the market value of the industry will see a surge, and the 2020 target will be close to two to three years in advance.

We all make movies, and industry prosperity is actually a good thing, which means greater profit margins and lower project risks. What I want to remind everyone is that the current industry output, both in terms of quality and quantity, has lagged behind The industry is growing. If there is another surge in the future, the production capacity of domestic films will surely fall even further behind.

A more authoritative estimate is that it will double in five to six years on the current basis, which means that the box office for the whole year will reach 2020 billion by 500.

There are theater chain owners present here. They know best whether the distribution of locations in counties and towns is a major trend in the industry.

At that time, it seems that the industry will usher in the golden age of Hong Kong films. You can make money by making movies with your eyes closed. No matter how bad the movie is, people will pay for it. After all, it’s only 9 yuan to watch a movie and just sit in the theater with the air conditioner blowing. Both hours were worth the price of admission.

If they all make bad movies, how will the industry meet the normal level of movie-watching demand from the audience when the ticket price rises back to the normal level of 50 yuan?
Does anyone really think that the hard-earned model of real estate and the Internet can continue, and that movie tickets will continue to be sold at a discount? "

Chen Yiming's theoretical deduction was a bit convoluted, but everyone in the conference room still understood it. In short, Chen Yiming was not optimistic about the current development model. He predicted that the film market would usher in a wave of rapid growth, but this round of growth would not last long. Once you reach the top, you will soon turn back down.

Not to mention that Chen Yiming went on to say that if you can't lie down for a few days, the industry will be in the cold winter, and those who lie down will never get up. This is no longer a piece of advice, it is simply a vicious curse.

I know many people will say that it cannot be calculated this way, because a large number of Chinese people do not watch movies at all, such as migrant workers with very low monthly incomes, most of the rural population, and the elderly or young children.

Regarding the distribution of cinemas under construction, the Film Bureau reports every year. If you look through it, you will know how many are in first- and second-tier cities and how many are in small counties in fifth- to eighteenth-tier cities. Comparing the two, the latter is definitely ahead by a large margin.

However, the fact is that these industry elites have not even established a consensus on industry growth, and are still racking their brains to make blockbusters to compete with Hollywood for the box office. How can they be convinced by Chen Yiming's prediction that they are about to win?

As for the Internet, it is even more obvious. IT giants are targeting the rural population because the potential of urban Internet users is about to be exhausted. They need new blue ocean users to support them and continue to tell stories to venture capital, as long as they can acquire new users. , they are willing to follow through even if they try to sell the pot.

However, this calculation is based on natural growth. The calculation formula does not take into account changes in the social and economic environment. As I said just now, industry growth is supported by the construction of commercial real estate and the expansion of Internet capital. No one can deny that these two are also the two pillars supporting China's economic growth.

In any case, Chen Yiming's prediction is too advanced. Do you really think that you are Zhuge Kongming, that you can know five hundred years later by shaking your fan?

So someone in the audience questioned, "Let's not talk about whether your prediction is correct. What does this have to do with your decision to make less blockbusters? Blockbusters have a large capacity, while small and medium-sized productions have a small capacity. Isn't it obvious where we should focus our efforts? ?
Those audiences you say are attracted by discounted tickets and new theaters, faced with imported blockbusters and domestic dramas in the same period, it is difficult to believe that they will choose the latter one.

Contradictory deductions and irresponsible predictions. You can't just rely on your youth and achievements to point out the world! "Chen Yiming took a closer look and said, "I'll go, isn't this my old friend Zhang Weiping? It turns out that you are also here today."

What he said in front of the big boss sounded a lot more pleasant, at least not like in the interview where he kept talking about ginseng and cock.

Since Lao Zhang saved face, Chen Yiming reciprocated the courtesy. He answered smoothly, "The problem is, whether it is a new audience or an old audience, they really don't necessarily choose what you said.

Let me tell you, in the future, Chinese audiences are really likely to support domestic products and watch imported blockbusters instead of small domestic films.

The reason is also very simple. Hollywood movies have quotas and are not available all year round.

Even if the number of introductions is increased, the domestic dubbing force cannot keep up. Most viewers still have to read subtitles. Young viewers are used to it and have no problem, but new viewers will find it uncomfortable.

Another thing, as I said just now, domestic blockbusters are benchmarked against imported blockbusters, and the comparison of special effects is on the same dimension. No matter how hard we work, if we want to reach the same level in the short term, or even settle for the second best and reach the average level, it will be Unrealistic.

Don’t forget, those who get the quota are Hollywood’s most box-office-worthy and technically competitive films every year. Not only can we in China not be able to beat them, but also the big three in Europe and the United States can’t beat them.

Domestic feature films have no competitors, just like domestic comedies and youth films. You only need to close the door and get involved yourself. If you get out of the way, you will be the most handsome boy in the same period, and there is no need to compete with Hollywood blockbusters for box office.

Some people may argue based on past history, saying that there is no market for feature films, and there is no need for audiences to enter movie theaters.

This was true in the past, but it may not be true in the future, because the Chinese film market is the opposite of Hollywood. After the market-oriented reforms at the beginning of the century, it directly entered the era of blockbusters. If you don't make blockbusters, you can't make money.

We have overlooked one thing, that is, Chinese audiences did not watch feature films in the past because going to the movies was a luxury consumption at that time. Similarly, spending 1 yuan to buy a bag, even a fool knows that people who buy LV should not buy Baleno.

When watching movies gradually becomes a daily consumption, it is equivalent to consumers having the freedom to buy bags. Do you think there will still be LV bags on the streets? Absolutely not. If carrying LV no longer gives a sense of superiority, I naturally think Carry whatever you carry.

Chinese audiences have not experienced the education process of various types of feature films, and we have not consciously cultivated a secondary film market. If there is one, it may only be limited to cartoons for children every summer vacation and Spring Festival.

For a mature market, this situation is certainly unhealthy. Of course, the next time you go to a restaurant, you will only order big fish and meat. But if going out to a restaurant becomes the norm, there must be porridge and side dishes to go with it.

And in this field of side dishes, domestic films have no rivals at all. At most, there are only a few Hong Kong and Chinese movies. With such a big and delicious piece of cake, I really don’t understand why everyone is always indifferent.

One day, in a market with huge inflation, there will be a feature film with a box office of tens of millions and a cost of 10 billion and 20 billion, and maybe everyone will wake up.

My expectations about human nature are relatively pessimistic. At that time, the actions taken by the imitators are likely not to make movies carefully, but to fool them and then vigorously market them. After all, this is more operational and the risks are more controllable.

As for the rational person assumption in economics, I, as a liberal arts student, know a little bit about it.

Brother Niu who is shaking his head, please stop shaking your head. When your company is listed as expected, even if you don't think so, your directors will force you to think so. If you don't believe it, we can bet.

Mr. Zhang, I won’t bet with you. Everyone in the industry knows your temperament. You are willing to make high-cost blockbusters by yourself. I’m afraid I won’t be able to contact you in a few years. "

Chen Yiming's reply was so vicious that it was like wishing Boss Zhang's retirement in advance. Zhang Weiping was so choked that his face turned red. It was inconvenient to do it in front of all the big guys, so he could only snort and turn away.

Shen Ming, who was on the podium, couldn't see it anymore and took the initiative to change the topic, "As long as the meaning is clear, there is no need to name names. I really have to do what you said. Bad movies can make a lot of money through marketing. We Do these people still need to meet here?”

(End of this chapter)