When I write a bug it becomes the core gameplay.

Chapter 522: Card Drawing Psychology

"Let the players... draw more and more?"

Lilith was shocked, as this was obviously something she had never thought of doing.

Currently, the card drawing in pay-to-win games can basically be described as "European and African Conservation".

Although this is not the case for individuals, some players may always be lucky and some may always be unlucky, but overall, it is indeed conserved.

Some unlucky players are struggling to move forward because some European players are living a peaceful life.

From the perspective of game manufacturers, except for a very small number of truly shameless manufacturers who choose to secretly change data and do nothing, most game manufacturers will not tamper with the probability of drawing cards in the game.

The reason is also very simple:
Strictly speaking, the positioning of pay-to-win game manufacturers is consistent with that of casinos.

The casino makes money from the commission, so whether the gambler wins or loses, the casino will not lose money.

The scenario that many people imagine, where "gamblers win too much and the casino won't let them leave," will never happen.

On the contrary, the casino will escort the gamblers back with great fanfare and promote it desperately. After all, the statement that "gamblers really won money in this casino" is conducive to attracting more people to gamble.

The same is true for pay-to-win games.

Although most pay-to-win game manufacturers will strictly control the release rate of the UP pool, players will always encounter situations where the advance deposit is not paid or the small guarantee is deviated, but in general, pay-to-win game manufacturers will still try their best to maintain the fairness of the entire card drawing mechanism, and even welcome those European players to spread special situations such as "continuous gold" and "double gold".

To break this situation, the krypton gold card drawing system must be made into a system that "most people are dissatisfied with."

So the problem with Lilith is: "It seems to be OK to make players more and more unlucky, but how to do it specifically?"

Gu Fan explained: "It's very simple. Although the official requires all game manufacturers to clearly state the probability of delivery in the card drawing system, there is actually no exact requirement for the specific value.

“Moreover, what is often required is the ‘minimum value’ or ‘bottom line value’, rather than having to write out the most realistic probabilities and mechanisms.

"In this case, it gives us a certain amount of room for maneuver."

Lilith nodded slightly. This kind of thing is not difficult to verify.

Open any pay-to-win card-drawing mobile game, and you can find corresponding instructions in the card-drawing system.

such as:

"In this round of Character A's UP pool, the basic probability of obtaining a five-star character is 1.4%. When a five-star character appears, the probability of obtaining Character A is 55%. The highest probability of obtaining Character A is 140 draws."

If similar instructions appear, you can understand it like this:
Every time a player draws, there is a 1.4% chance of getting a five-star character.

However, this five-star character is not necessarily the UP pool character that the player wants. It may also be a five-star character in the permanent pool that is not very strong.

This is also explained: when a player draws a five-star character, commonly known as "drawing gold", the probability of obtaining UP pool character A is 55%, which means that there is also a 45% probability of obtaining other unwanted resident pool five-star characters.

But simply stipulating the probability is not enough.

Because according to expectations, a 1.4% probability means that it should come out after about 70 draws, but if it is a real probability, there must be a large number of players who don’t get it even after 70 draws.

So, the game is basically all fake probability.

What actually happens is that when a player has not gotten any gold after about 60 draws, the probability of getting gold when drawing a card again will increase significantly.

For example, the probability of a prize not coming out increases by 1% every time before, but if it still doesn’t come out after 60 draws, the probability will directly increase by 5% or even 10%.

This ensures that players will make money before or after 70 draws, which triggers a "small guarantee".

For players, it is very difficult to get gold after 70 draws.

But if we actually analyze this system, we will find that game manufacturers have generally increased their shipment rates.

Those players who are lucky can get gold without 70 draws; and those players who are unlucky and could not get gold even after 70 draws are forced by the official to get a gold when they make 70 draws.

So in actual calculation, the player's overall chance of drawing a five-star character is much higher than 1.4%.

However, the game company will not write the actual probability, but only write the most basic expected probability of 1.4%. The official rules fully allow this.

If the game manufacturer really wants to, they can also falsely label the game, for example, saying that their game shipment rate is 1%, but the actual rate is 5%.

But basically no manufacturer would do this. After all, having a high shipment rate of their own games is already a conscientious way of making concessions, and of course they have to publicize it.

Even if the players are not grateful, it would be good if they could refrain from cursing.

In case of reverse false bidding, players may not be able to feel it and do not think that it is an official concession. They just think that they are lucky. Then isn’t the concession made in vain?

And at this moment, Gu Fan wanted to take advantage of this.

"Boss Li, this is what I think.

“First of all, the krypton gold system itself is a black box, and players cannot actually fully understand what is in this black box.

“Secondly, although the authorities will investigate this black box, they will not control all the mechanisms. They only require that the guaranteed probability we advertise is consistent with the actual situation in the game. As for how it is consistent, there are no specific requirements.

“Combining the above two points, we can think of a way to raise the players’ psychological expectations when they are not very aware of it at the beginning, and then let them fall hard to the ground!
"This is what we call 'It is easy to go from frugality to luxury, but difficult to go from luxury to frugality'.

"We have designed a krypton gold card drawing system where the probability of getting a card decreases as the number of draws increases.

“Of course, this system has to be somewhat confusing. We still have to distinguish between the lucky ones and the unlucky ones in the crowd, so that there is still some randomness when players draw cards every time.

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"That is to say, all players meet the general premise that 'the higher the draw number, the lower the probability of getting a product', but under this general premise, some are lucky and some are not.

"Our goal is to make players vaguely feel that something is wrong, but not completely confirm it."

Lilith frowned slightly: "Will the authorities agree?"

Gu Fan continued, "This is the problem we discussed before: the official only requires that the basic extraction probability of a five-star character is not less than 0.5%, and the probability we announce must be true and cannot be false, but it can be false in the opposite direction.

“So we can design a system that makes the more you draw, the more you lose” under the premise of following this rule.

"Our basic probability of extracting a five-star character is set at 0.5%, which is lower than the current common pay-to-win games, but it doesn't matter.

“Like other pay-to-win games, we open two UP pools every month. The first half of the month is for new characters, and the second half of the month is for re-releases of old characters.

“Our actual probability is:

“In the same UP pool, the earlier the item is, the higher the probability of delivery, while the later the item is, the lower the probability of delivery.

“Other games use 60, 80, or 160 draws as a cycle, but we use 1000 draws as a cycle.

“Within 1000 draws, our basic draw probability for a five-star character is 0.5%, and the comprehensive draw probability is 1.5%, but the draw probability decreases gradually.

"That is, the first 100 draws have the highest overall probability of winning, and the last 100 draws have the lowest overall probability of winning, but after averaging, the overall probability of winning can reach 1.5%.

“In the beginning, they were more conscientious than other game manufacturers, but later on and on average, they were worse than other game manufacturers.

“Because most players will not draw more than 300 cards in each card pool, so for multiple UP pools, the overall probability of shipment in the front UP pool is higher, while the overall probability of shipment in the back UP pool is lower.

“When it drops to a certain level, it will bottom out and rebound, and then recalculate.

"For example, we have two UP pools every month, the upper and lower half. Players spend 300 draws in the upper half and 200 draws in the lower half. Then, the next month, they spend 300 draws in the upper half and 200 draws in the lower half.

"Then at this time, he will obviously feel that this month is much better than last month, and the pool in the second half is much better than the pool in the first half.

"You'll have a feeling that 'the more you smoke, the worse it gets'.

"But when he draws 1000 times, the odds will bottom out and recalculate, and the chance of winning will increase, so he won't be so depressed that he quits."

Lilith felt a little confused and frowned as if she was deep in thought.

After a long while, she nodded slowly: "It sounds like it makes some sense."

The principle is actually very simple, it is just a psychological effect.

In terms of probability, this approach is actually not particularly different from that of other game manufacturers.

(End of this chapter)