I’m in Hollywood

After becoming a shareholder of Firefly Pictures, both Warren Buffett and David West began to pay attention to the Hollywood movie market. .... ...

After Eric’s lecture, the three people realized that this year’s Hollywood film, such as the Mummy and Save the Ryan, was a failed Beverly Hills Detective 3 or Law Enforcement. The hair style strategy adopted is the full release that Eric said, so they also endorsed the conclusions in the first article.

None of the three people couldn't help but ask if Eric should talk about this, but quietly followed Eric's actions and opened the next page.

"First of all, I have to make a statement," Eric said after opening another page of documents. "My plan is to close Disney's hand-drawn animation department, but I have never said that I want to stop Disney's animation. I just want to let Disney." The animation studio shifts from traditional hand-drawn animation to more advanced digital animation."

Of course, Buffett three people know this, they smiled and nodded, they also know why Eric said this, now the rumors of Eric’s move have been exaggerated to Eric’s desire to replace the Disney brand with fireflies. The point is.

Eric smiled and said: "Then, the next piece of information is the contrast of four animated films released between 1991 and 1994, "Beauty and the Beast", "Aladdin", "Toy Story" and " Bugs Crisis. These four films represent typical 2d animations and 3d animations. Overall, we can see that the total box office of Beauty and the Beast and Aladdin is slightly more than two 3d animations, but From the analysis of the box office curve, it is not difficult to find that "Beauty and the Beast" and "Aladdin" are very standard long-term screening models. The eight-week box office of the two films accounts for only 57% and 53% of the total box office, respectively. The corresponding figures for Toy Story and Bugs Crisis are 89% and 88%, which is a typical full-issue model film. At the same time, we can see the release of Toy Story and Bugs Crisis. The number of screens quickly fell to less than 1,000 in 13 weeks and 12 weeks. The screen was given to other films, while the beauty and the beast and Aladdin kept the 1000 screen counts separately. Up to 25 weeks and 21 weeks, I believe the next few years, in the case of general circulation completely occupy the mainstream market, cinema box office business in order to get more. Absolutely can not allow this to screen a large number of long-term occupation continues. "

Tom Murphy asked: "Eric, this doesn't seem to prove the fate of 2d animations being eliminated. We can make 2d animations also use the full release mode. "Lion King" seems to be like this."

David West and Warren Buffett nodded without a trace.

Eric seems to expect that they will ask, and the smile does not change: "So. We continue to read the next information."

Buffett looked at each other and turned to the next page.

"The next thing I want to explain is why 2d animation can't adopt the full release mode," Eric looked at Tom Murphy and said: "We have just reached the "Lion King" is just a tacit understanding of an event movie. From the box office trends of "The Little Mermaid", "Rabbit Roger", "Beauty and the Beast" and "Aladdin", we have not found any expansion in the 2d animation market, so I hope everyone can ignore the "Lion" for the time being. Wang, can you?"

Tom Murphy nodded, and Warren Buffett and David West had already looked at the information in their hands.

Eric went on to say: "In front of everyone is a one-week box office comparison table of four animated films. We can see that the two-week box office fluctuations of the two 2d films are very unstable, even after eight weeks, it will appear. In the state of high and low, sometimes the box office has slipped to more than 5 million US dollars, but suddenly rose to more than 8 million next week. The other two films have a stable box office curve similar to that of the city. Why does it appear? In this case, the answer is on the next page."

After the four turned pages at the same time, Eric looked up at the three. Laughed: "Is the amazing column of the first column scale drawing attracting attention?"

After Eric’s reminder, even if he didn’t notice it, Buffett saw the awkward strip of the first column scale.

"The front view of the column shows the proportion of people watching movies of different ages in 2d animated movies and 3d animated films. In order to show the results more intuitively, I have divided the age of the audience (0-13 years old), ( The four ranges of 14-18 years old, (19-28 years old) and (>28 years old) are based on Disney's previous market research reports, and the accuracy is unquestionable."

Eric briefly explained, "We can clearly see that in the 2d animated film, the 0-13 year old viewers accounted for an astonishing 41% of the total audience. The same data for 3d animated movies. This ratio is only 26%. However, this does not mean that the number of children who like 3d animation is reduced, but because the number of viewers over the age of 13 has increased significantly. In the histogram, the two types of films are 14-18 years old. The ratio of the number of people watching the audience has a strong contrast with the 0-13 range, which is 17% and 29% respectively. The age range of 19-28 years old is also obvious, 7% and 16% respectively. I believe that this age In the interval of 2d animation, 7% of the crowd, certainly a large part of it is to bring the children together, and the 28-year-old viewers watching 2d cartoons, I believe basically to meet the children's viewing needs."

After a brief description of the data, Eric will no longer look at the documents and look up: "Disney has always had the practice of 2d hand-drawn animated films before re-released every seven years, because Disney itself will also be 7-13 years old. The audience is the main viewing group, and every seven years, there are a number of new children's audiences. Through these detailed statistics, we can easily find out why the 2D animated movie box office curve is very unstable and why can only take long-term screenings. mode."

“Because the aging of 2D animated films is very serious, this part of the children’s audience is not capable of self-determination and must be led by parents to watch. Even during the summer, adults need to work, they often only pass On weekends or on special holidays, you can take your children to watch 2d cartoons. In order to meet the parents' very uncertain schedule, the film company must adopt the long-term screening mode that will be eliminated to fully exploit the box office potential of 2d animation."

“The 3D animated film is different. This new animated film mode is not only loved by younger audiences, but also recognized by young people who have formed a separate purchasing power and a part of the adult audience. 3d animation of the recent movie crowd ratio statistics The proportion of children in the film is only 26%, and the proportion of viewers in the main movie consumer groups of 14-28 years old is 45%. This ratio is almost the same as that of live-action movie viewers, which is why 3D animated films can be used in the same way as live-action movies. The market strategy of the issue."

After Eric finished, Warren Buffett fell into a short meditation, and Eric did not bother the three. Raising his hand and looking at the watch, unconsciously fifteen minutes is about to pass, he did not want to let the restaurant waiter rushed in, so he turned to Kelly Haynes and whispered a few words.

Although Kelly Haynes had some disappointing Eric's high-spirited speech, she was very obedient and took the initiative to get out. When she walked to the door, Kelly Haynes realized that Eric had just gotten into her ear, maybe she could kiss her cheek a little further, but she did not give the slightest resistance. Emotions, at this time, I feel that the earlobe that Eric breathed in is inexplicably hot.

I heard a slight closing sound behind me. Eric looked at the three people who had come back to God and smiled and said: "So, let's continue?"

Buffett three people nodded, although they could pick a lot of questions in their minds, but looked at the information left in their hands, the three people subconsciously felt that the young man must have considered any questions they might ask. one question.

Tom Murphy and David West were almost convinced by Eric at this time, and Buffett looked at Eric’s eyes with a strong approval and eagerness. He is 65 years old this year, although still Full of energy. But the problem of death has begun to plague him and other partners in the company. Many of Berkshire Hathaway’s partners have asked his company’s next heir more than once, and the children of Buffett apparently did not The ability of this position.

Although Buffett believes that he can still work for at least ten years, he has also joked that even if he dies, he will show up to Berkshire Hathaway. But anyone, including himself, knows very well that once he dies, Berkshire Hathaway will definitely face an unknowable change.

Buffett tried to train a heir more than once, but several attempts ended in failure. At the moment, in the case of the "Lion King" box office is so hot, you can calmly see a development trend of the industry, and do not covet the interests of the moment and choose young people in the long-term plan. His keen insight and firm execution have always been the prerequisites for his ideal heirs.

just……

Buffett’s heart soon gave birth to a strong regret. The wealth and status that Eric now has also means that he is unlikely to be the next leader of Berkshire Hathaway, because Buffett prefers his heirs. Being able to focus on Berkshire Hathaway's operations, not distracting others, but Eric's industry is already much bigger than Berkshire Hathaway, and he will be Berkshire. Sawei gave him, and Eric could hardly separate too much energy to manage this equally large company.

Although I regret to confirm this, Buffett is still somewhat unwilling.

Eric didn't know what Buffett thought, and saw that the three people had no objection and said, "So, after talking about the external factors that affect the 2d animation, the next is the internal reason. I think everyone must be aware of the cost difference between the two movies. Yes, the two 2d animated films listed here cost less than 30 million, while the cost of Toy Story and Bugs Crisis are $50 million and $80 million, respectively."

Having said that, Eric paused and said: "First of all, I have to explain a problem. Whether it is 2d or 3d animation, the main cost is the cost of human resources. Each frame of the two animated films is artificial. The drawing is different, but the drawing vector is different. Because the hand-drawn animation has been developed for more than half a century, the whole industry is very mature, and the number of animators is very large, so even the Disney Animation Studio is the world's best hand-drawn animation. There are very few teachers with an annual salary of more than 100,000 US dollars. But the digital animator is a newly emerging career, and the talents are very scarce. Therefore, after the success of Toy Story, in order to prevent Pixar's skilled digital animators from being dug by other film companies. Go, fireflies have to raise their salary levels. Similarly, after "Lion King", if Disney wants to continue to maintain the hand-painted animation department, the original monthly salary of an average of $50,000 in animators may exceed 10,000. The dollar, that is, the cost of making 2d animations will double..."

Tom Murphy heard this and suddenly interrupted Eric with a smile. "Eric, you just said, "Lion King" is an event movie?"

"Of course, but I don't think it means that Hollywood is like this. Do they all think that the golden age of 2d animation is coming?" Eric knew that Tom Murphy was just joking, explaining, and continuing. Said: "The cost of making "Lion King" has exceeded $45 million. If you double it, the cost of future 2d hand-drawn animations may exceed $100 million."

Eric clearly remembers that in 1999, when he accidentally saw Disney's latest 2d hand-drawn animation "People's Taishan" through the Internet, he hit the banner of the most expensive animated film in history, and publicized the "Taishan Mountain." "The production cost has reached 150 million US dollars, and then the film's North American box office is only 170 million. According to the experience that Eric has accumulated so far, the cost plus the huge issuance cost, even the calculation of this live-action animation The surrounding profits, the possibility of Disney losses is also very large.

"So, if in the next few years, theater operators are no longer willing to waste screen resources to continue to implement long-term distribution of 2d animated films, the cost of up to 100 million US dollars and the average investment that may rise to 50 million US dollars, we can almost certainly, Unless the movie movie "Lion King" continues to appear, it will be difficult for the company to recover the cost of the film through the box office. Then, you will definitely say that the surrounding income of the animated film is always very rich, then we will continue to look at the next Statistics..."

The three people of Buffett were poked in the last words of Eric, and they continued to turn over a page with laughter. At the same time, Kelly Haynes, who had just left, returned silently to Eric. . (To be continued.)