Simulation: Great Power Technology

In 2021, Huaxia's photovoltaic product exports will exceed 28.4 billion tons, an increase of 43.7%, an increase of 14 percentage points compared to 2019.

The module shipments of the top ten PV companies in China already account for more than 75% of the global market share. In 2021, Huaxia photovoltaic power generation will add 54.88GW, continuing to rank first in the world, accounting for nearly 40% of the world's newly installed capacity.

At the same time, almost all of the equipment, key raw materials and core technologies of Huaxia's photovoltaic industry have been independently controllable. We control almost the entire supply chain of the global photovoltaic industry. Among the top 10 companies in the world, 8 are from Huaxia.

From the technical point of view, our photovoltaic industrialization technology is already at the advanced level in the world, and we are accelerating the deployment of cutting-edge technologies. Absolute advantage, and this is the reason why the West dares to impose restrictions on the Huaxia chip industry, but hesitates to act on the Huaxia photovoltaic industry.

----However, 18 years ago, or even 10 years ago, the Huaxia photovoltaic industry was not in such a state of being small at all, and even in the face of Western trade barriers, the industry was on the verge of annihilation of the entire industry. .

It all started from a meeting many years ago.

In 1996, the World Solar Energy Summit was held in Zimbabwe, and photovoltaic power generation began to enter China's vision. At this time, there were still 76.56 million people without electricity in our country. These people without electricity are concentrated in the northwest region, far from the grid, with small loads and scattered wide.

Among them, due to geographical reasons, the proportion of households without electricity in Tibet area is as high as 78%. If the power grid extension is used to solve this problem, it will take at least 20 years.

And photovoltaic power generation, can reverse all this.

In the second year after the Zimbabwe Meeting, Huaxia started to implement the Bright Project, and established thousands of independent power generation systems in the west through solar and wind power generation methods, solving the electricity problem of more than 700 villages in the west.

The demand for photovoltaics by Guangming Engineering created the first generation of photovoltaic enterprises in Huaxia. Those Huaxia Solar Energy companies that later entered the world stage all started from small villages in the west.

However, unlike other industries, Huaxia Photovoltaic Enterprise has a dazzling beginning.

In 2004, under the pressure of a series of energy issues and environmental protection judicial investigations, Western countries began to seek energy transformation, and wind power and photovoltaics became the best choice. This year is called the first year of the photovoltaic industry.

Stimulated by the policies of many countries, China's photovoltaic industry has entered the first outbreak period.

Contrary to what many people think, photovoltaic enterprises are not actually a technology-intensive industry in the strict sense, because the assembly of silicon wafers and the integration of battery components have not been automated before, it is actually a labor. intensive industry.

Therefore, at that time, Western countries gradually transferred the most energy-consuming and polluting photovoltaic industry, silicon purification, smelting, and assembly and production links that require a lot of labor to China.

From 2004 to 2007, in just 4 years, Huaxia's photovoltaic industry cell module production capacity jumped from less than 100mw to 1088mw, and Huaxia became the world's largest photovoltaic cell manufacturing power.

At that time, Suntech Power, the leading enterprise of Huaxia photovoltaic production, was listed on the New York Stock Exchange only in the second year after the outbreak of the photovoltaic industry, becoming the first Huaxia company to be listed on the main board of the ugly country.

At this time, the Huaxia photovoltaic industry had many companies, which formed the "Huaxia Solar Corps" internationally, which was one of the brightest moments of Huaxia photovoltaic.

However, when the whole industry is immersed in the urge to expand and the fantasy of wealth, the Chinese people are immersed in another "China first", and when China is about to achieve overtaking in the new energy field, it does not know that the entire industry is already brewing a huge crisis. .

The cause of this crisis was the pattern of "three heads out" in the photovoltaic industry at that time.

In the industry, high-tech manufacturing joints such as silicon crystal manufacturing and slicing are still dominated by Western companies. China's fast-growing photovoltaic module assembly industry and huge production capacity have to rely on high-priced imported silicon wafers, but they can only earn a meager income from it. profit.

Technically, key equipment such as silicon smelting equipment, silicon crystal smelting furnace, slicer, key supporting raw materials such as silver paste and polishing agent, and key electronic devices such as inverters are still monopolized by foreign suppliers. Strict technical blockade and patent protection.

At the market level, since Huaxia's new energy market was still in its infancy at that time, overseas sellers almost monopolized the sales channels of Huaxia's photovoltaic enterprises - the photovoltaic equipment we built could only actually be sold abroad.

Under such a pattern, if there is any turbulence in the international market, the entire enterprise will face the danger of annihilation.

It is a pity that the industry in Huaxia did not realize the seriousness of the problem at that time, but was seized by international capital.

Due to the explosive growth of China's photovoltaic module production capacity, from 2004 to 2007, the spot price of polysilicon in the international market soared from 40 to 200 tons per kilogram.

In fact, at this time, the market has already sounded the alarm for the Huaxia photovoltaic industry.

However, at this time, the Huaxia photovoltaic enterprises have been carried away by the victory. The investment that should have been carried out in technological transformation and industrial upgrading was once again used for the expansion of production capacity, and a large number of photovoltaic enterprises even borrowed to expand production.

Of course, under the circumstances of soaring polysilicon prices and explosive industrial expansion, some companies in Huaxia have also realized the crisis and the importance of mastering upstream polysilicon manufacturing. possible crisis.

However, the shortage of key equipment and technology accumulation was revealed at this time.

A large number of equipment and technology patents need to be purchased from foreign companies or even competitors, and the price offered by the other party is naturally sky-high, coupled with huge capital costs and a long construction period, which leads to the investment of Huaxia Photovoltaic Enterprises in the short term. It is extremely difficult for upstream polysilicon to make a profit, and it even falls deeper and deeper into the debt black hole.

After the outbreak of the European debt crisis in 2010, large-scale public debt defaults broke out in many Western countries, and the photovoltaic power generation field has also become a default area. The pre-construction plan of the power station was cancelled, the subsidies for photovoltaic power generation began to be greatly reduced, and the price of photovoltaic modules plummeted by 70%.

On the one hand, the price of raw materials has skyrocketed, and on the other hand, the price of finished products has plummeted. Under the siege from both ends, the profits of Huaxia Photovoltaic Enterprises relying on cheap labor were eventually taken away by financiers thousands of miles away.

However, the hunt for Huaxia Photovoltaic enterprises is far from over. In this year, the globalization system that Huaxia Photovoltaic once had an illusion of began to collapse.

In order to get out of the financial crisis, the West has put forward the national strategy of "re-industrialization", and the return and development of the new energy industry has naturally become the top priority. The banner of trade protectionism has begun to rise again in the West.

In November 2011, the Ministry of Commerce of the ugly country officially launched an anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation on China's imported solar cells (panels). tax and countervailing duties.

For a time, the "three-headed-out" Huaxia photovoltaic enterprises almost collapsed across the board, and the sales channels were cut off, giving the Huaxia photovoltaic industry a fatal blow.

On March 18, 2013, Suntech Power, the largest photovoltaic company in China at that time, declared bankruptcy. The second largest photovoltaic company, Yingli Group, has a total debt ratio of close to 80%, accounts receivable reached 190 million yuan, and many production lines have been shut down, leaving the company on the line.

Chouguo Investment Bank MG mentioned in its report at the time that the accumulated debt of China's 10 largest photovoltaic module manufacturers reached 17.5 billion tons, and the entire industry was close to the brink of collapse.

The export value of Huaxia Photovoltaic has dropped from nearly 25 billion yuan in 2011 to less than 13 billion yuan, a drop of nearly 50%. It can be said that the entire Huaxia photovoltaic industry has paid a heavy price for its three-headed industrial model.

However, it was after this disaster that China's photovoltaic industry and China's officials finally fully understood that for any advanced industry, its technical foundation, industrial support and market layout must be in their own hands.

However, to do this, there is an extremely difficult road in front of the rabbit.

At that time, the cost of electricity for a photovoltaic power plant in Inner Mongolia was as high as 1 yuan, while the cost of coal power was only 0.38 yuan in the same period.

This means that if you want to keep the power plant running, the government must first invest tens of millions of yuan to build the power plant, and then need to use a subsidy price of 0.62 yuan per kilowatt-hour to maintain the normal operation of the power plant.

This is a huge difficulty, and in any country dominated by capital, it is impossible to risk such a huge investment.

It is true that everyone knows that with the development of the photovoltaic industry and the advancement of technology, the cost of photovoltaic power generation will gradually decrease until it is lower than the traditional power generation method. However, no one has a clear answer on how long this time will be.

No one knows whether official finances will be dragged down by this nascent industry before this so-called "parity point" is reached.

However, this rabbit is an outlier.

Its strategic vision transcends any real interests and always looks to the farther future.

In 2009, the Golden Sun project was launched, and it is expected to invest 10 billion soft sister coins to promote the development of the domestic photovoltaic market in the form of financial subsidies, and to establish a domestic to international buffer zone for domestic photovoltaic enterprises.

This project has saved hundreds of thousands of jobs, solved a large number of electricity problems, and more importantly, it has added the most critical breath to domestic photovoltaic industry companies that are already on the verge of death.

In the same year, China Power Investment Corporation, which has been in the field of new energy for more than ten years, left the west where it took root and traveled thousands of miles to the east.

The first action it made was to join the North Jiangsu plan.

The so-called Jiangsu plan, that is, the development plan for the northern Jiangsu area, has been in preparation for nearly 15 years at that time, but since the coastal economy was mainly based on Qingdao and Shanghai at that time, the northern Jiangsu plan has always been used as a strategic preparatory plan. implement.

After 2008, due to the impact of the international financial crisis, the domestic economy urgently needs new growth poles. The northern Jiangsu plan has been upgraded to a national strategy. The most critical one is that by 2020, the new energy power generation of the entire province must reach the total power generation. 40% of the amount.

With the support of the North Jiangsu plan, CPI and GCL Group established a 1000mw power station, the main purpose of which is to develop and verify new technologies, and this project has continuously provided strong technology for the development of domestic photovoltaic enterprises since then. support.

The market and technology have been solved, and the most core raw material link is solved by a once unknown engineer.

Chen Weiping, chief engineer of Hualu Company.

In 2007, the cold hydrogenation technology developed by him was fully implemented, and in just a few years, the patent barrier was broken, and this technology was transmitted to all relevant industrial companies in the country.

So far, the three-headed-out pattern has been completely broken.

Subsequently, the potential of Huaxia Photovoltaic enterprises suppressed by the financial crisis was fully released. Western industries that had chosen to shrink their production capacity during the crisis were unable to adjust their production capacity in time, while Huaxia Photovoltaic Company, which retained most of its production capacity in the Golden Sun Project, became the only one in the international market. choose.

In 2011, the output of Huaxia Photovoltaic Group reached 66% of the global output. The Huaxia Solar Corps went to sea again, carrying the most advanced technology, the strongest financial strength, and the strongest policy support, and began to counterattack the West.

In 2012, q-cell, Europe's largest photovoltaic company, went bankrupt, marking the complete failure of the hunt for China's photovoltaic industry, and the nearly 20-year history of high-profit monopoly in the photovoltaic industry in the West ended.

In just 6 years, those capitalists hiding in Wall Street and Frankfurt could never have imagined that Huaxia Solar's counterattack would be so fast and fierce.

This photovoltaic battle spanning two financial crises has also become a classic battle in the international economic field.

However, the battle did not end there.

After this, the competition in the photovoltaic field began to break away from the commercial dimension and entered the field of geopolitical struggle.

The anti-dumping investigation was carried out, domestic photovoltaic companies collapsed overnight, the output value of 350 billion soft coins was lost, 200 billion soft coins appeared structural risks, more than 500 industrial companies went bankrupt, and 500,000 people lost their jobs at the same time.

This is the last darkness before dawn, but it is also the most critical moment for the entire China PV industry.

We can use many reasons to explain such a crisis, but fundamentally, the root cause of this crisis is not only the confrontation of an industry, but actually the contradiction in the choice of paths between the two countries. It is the Chinese people's desire for a better life. The yearning and pursuit are in contradiction with the hegemonic system in which the vested interests of the West condescend to squeeze everyone but them.

To regain the initiative in such contradictions and conflicts, there is only one path we can choose, and that is, to return to the people.

In March 2013, under the leadership of China Power Investment Corporation, the Huaxia PV Corps returned to the Great Northwest.

Under this strategy, Huaxia gritted its teeth and shattered the industrial layout of the past ten years, redoing the entire industrial logic, reversing the gradient transfer theory that has dominated the world economic history for decades, and integrating the latest developments in developed regions. The technology is directly applied across regions to the least developed regions, and then gradually transferred from the underdeveloped regions to the developed regions.

This is a huge innovation and an exploration full of risks and unknowns.

In this process, maybe even just taking one wrong step will lead us into the abyss of doom.

However, maybe it was due to the national fortune, or maybe the rabbit's strategic vision played a role again. The final effect of this strategy far exceeded everyone's expectations.

Under this strategy, all new technologies in developed regions will face the 100 billion-level market in the Northwest, and new technologies will gain the most direct and rapid economic benefits. Grind and promote the leap-forward development of technology in the most extreme way.

This is the ambition of the rabbit.

They simply disdain to follow the steady path that others have walked. It is a path full of thorns, but a bright future, which they have pioneered by themselves.

This road eventually became wider and wider under the feet of successive pioneers. The Huaxia PV market broke out in an all-round way, and cutting-edge technologies emerged one after another. Even under the containment of the anti-dumping strategy, Huaxia Photovoltaic still resolutely returned to the international market from the west.

After 2019, the Huaxia PV industry has received orders from more than 200 countries. These countries completely ignored the anti-dumping investigations of the two major economies and expelled Western PV companies without a word.

Because what we have is already the top technology in the world, and it has even opened up generations of gaps with other countries. As long as it is a normal country, it knows how to make a choice.

This is a miracle.

No industry in any country has ever survived the blockade of the two major economies, and Huaxia PV not only survived, but even crushed them.

We are back.

And this time, no one can stop us.