The Pentium Era - South to North

The location where the Meilan is parked is the Henggou River. The Henggou River is a tributary of the Nandu River. The Nandu River branches off into a branch a little past the Xinbu Bridge. Together with the Nandu River, it surrounds the land in the middle. It became Xinbu Island. To be more precise, Xinbu Island is an alluvial island at the estuary of the Nandu River, just like Chongming Island at the estuary of the Yangtze River.

The place where the Meilan is parked is still a three-way intersection. Going up, you can reach the Nandu River, and going down to the sea. Going out sideways, it is connected to the Henggou River, which is the Haidian River that separates Haidian Island from downtown Haicheng.

Jinshuimen's advertisement said "Cruise sightseeing, water scenery." The box Zhang Chen and the others were in was also called a sea view box, but in fact, they couldn't see much water scenery or sea view.

The boat goes up, because the bridge opening of Xinbu Bridge is too short, it cannot cross the bridge, and when it reaches Nandu River, Haidian River can be entered, but the channel of Haidian River is very narrow, and the banks on both sides are very high. From the boat, it can be seen that All you can see is the high river bank, so it only has one route, which is to follow the Henggou River to the sea.

Even when it reaches the seaport, it can only stay on the shore for a while, and then come back along the Henggou River. It does not dare to really go out to sea. Firstly, it is for safety reasons, and also because the wind and waves on the sea are too big, and the hull is bumpy. It’s amazing, the people on the boat have no way to eat well or drink gracefully.

What's more, not long after they boarded the boat, the sky outside began to darken. After the initial freshness passed, it was already pitch black outside and nothing could be seen. Everyone had given up their interest in looking outside and focused more on On the seafood on the table and on the people sitting around the table.

Tan Shuzhen told Mr. Han her own thoughts. Mr. Han nodded and said, your consideration is actually right. What you have considered has actually been considered by the above. It is indeed a piece of cake to ask state-owned enterprises and central enterprises to withdraw from the real estate market. A blank check, state-owned enterprises and central enterprises will not only not withdraw from the real estate market, but their market share will only be higher.

Private real estate companies like yours can only survive in the cracks.

The profits of real estate are too high. Those companies make more money by doing real estate than doing their main business. How could they not flock to it, and how could they give up the meat in the bowl?

From the perspective of the decision-making level, the real estate market is too big. It can be said that it affects the whole body. If it is not done well, it will shake the country. You think, this kind of market is left to your private real estate developers. Well, is it better to leave it to state-owned enterprises?

Under the thought of maintaining stability, it must be left to those enterprises. They are their own sons. At critical times, they are the ones who can order them to change their minds and act in a unified manner. If they don’t change their minds, they will change their positions. It is too easy to control them. Using the same The method is up to you, okay?

Including this macro-control, there are only two final results.

Mr. Han said, picked up the chopsticks, put a piece of geoduck into his mouth, and chewed it.

Zhang Chen is familiar with Mr. Han's style. At this point, he can stop or spit out more useful information. It mainly depends on which direction the person talking to him leads him.

After Mr. Han finished speaking, Zhang Chen raised his cup, clinked it with Mr. Han, and then asked: "Mr. Han, what are the two results?"

Mr. Han laughed and said, "Mr. Zhang is also interested in real estate now?"

Zhang Chen said: "Didn't Mr. Han say that real estate affects the whole body? How dare I not be interested? I am afraid that I will be passive and not know."

Everyone laughed.

Mr. Han said: "First, as Mr. Tan said, private real estate companies will be completely eliminated from the real estate market in first-tier cities through this round of regulation."

Lao Xie didn't understand, so he asked: "Mr. Han, how can we regulate and control private real estate companies out of the real estate market in first-tier cities?"

"It's very simple." Mr. Han said, "Of all the control measures, the most lethal ones are definitely financial measures. When financial controls are implemented, private real estate companies like Mr. Tan and others will bear the brunt. Their funds will dry up, while state-owned enterprises and central enterprises will Is it possible? Have you ever heard of a time when they were short of money?

"Even if it is a blanket policy and banks are not allowed to issue real estate development loans, they can still make bank loans and even state subsidies continue to flow into real estate through the internal operations of the company. How much of the four trillion yuan has flowed into real estate? Who can tell clearly, and everyone knows clearly through what channels it flows.

"A real estate company of the size of Mr. Tan is also a first-tier and leading company in China. Is it possible for them to get a dime of 4 trillion? On the one hand, funds will continue to dry up, and on the other hand, funds will continue to flow. , for a capital-intensive industry like real estate, it is not an easy conclusion to draw as to who can squeeze out whom?”

Everyone present nodded and felt that Mr. Han’s analysis was correct. Xiao Zheng said:

"Mr. Han, I don't know much about this business, but you said that the result of the policy is to squeeze private real estate companies out of first-tier cities. What's the benefit to the higher-ups?"

"As I said before, stability is paramount, and the stability of first-tier cities is even more paramount. It doesn't matter if Hainan is in chaos for a while. In the early years of Hainan's real estate bubble, how many companies died, and how big are the sequelae?" Mr. Han said , “But it only hurts Hainan and cannot affect the overall situation of the country.

"But think about it, what would happen if the same thing happened in Beijing and Shanghai? Who dares to let this happen? After this wave of regulation, the result is that in first-tier cities, the primary market for land is monopolized by local governments. Yes, the real estate market is monopolized by state-owned enterprises and central enterprises, so what big trouble can happen? Isn’t this the best situation?"

Xiao Zheng nodded and said with a smile: "If you put it like that, I understand. It looks like it's really a big game."

Mr. Han is right. Now that the entire market has been opened up, there can no longer be a one-size-fits-all approach, and administrative measures can no longer be adopted. Several macro-controls have targeted private real estate companies every time. Smart people know that using regulation , can also achieve the purpose that administrative means want to achieve.

"Mr. Han, what's the second result you mentioned?" Tan Shuzhen asked.

"The second result... I dare to predict that after this macro-control, housing prices in first-tier cities will not only not fall, but will only rise." Mr. Han said.

Tan Shuzhen was surprised. This was something she had not thought of. She asked, "Why? How could Mr. Han come to this conclusion?"

"This time's regulatory policy looks very good. The biggest highlight is to increase the construction of affordable housing. Think about it, Mr. Tan, I will give you a piece of land and require 30% to be used to build affordable housing. You haven’t made any money from this part of your investment, so what will you do if your company still needs to ensure a reasonable profit rate?”

"Increase the selling price of the other 70% of the house." Tan Shuzhen blurted out, and everyone laughed.

Mr. Han also smiled and said: "Look, the answer is already there, including in Singapore. The housing allocated to you by the state is very cheap. If you want to buy your own house, I'm sorry, it's so expensive."

When Mr. Han saw Zhang Chen raising his glass towards him, he also raised it, and everyone else raised it and clinked it together.

Putting down the cup, Mr. Han seemed to have opened up his chat box. He continued:

"Moreover, the high housing prices in first-tier cities are due to the superposition of multiple factors, which means that their housing prices are destined to be impossible to fall. First, local governments are increasingly dependent on land finance, and they are unlikely to be willing to see it. When housing prices fall, the land is in their hands. As long as they control the pace of land release, they can control housing prices.

"Second, are there more poor people or rich people buying houses now? It must be the rich. Most of them buy houses for investment. If the house price falls, they can still bear it and will not sell their houses. No one wants to see their investment losses. They would rather wait. If they can't sell it, they can continue to rent it out anyway.

"Besides, several real estate regulations have been seen through by everyone. Everyone found that after each regulation ended, housing prices not only did not fall, but there was a wave of retaliatory skyrocketing. This time the regulation came again, those in the hands of The person holding a few houses may be snickering. He is waiting for the next surge, and only a fool will sell the house in his hand.

"I mentioned affordable housing earlier. I can guarantee that after further increasing the construction of affordable housing this time, a large part of those who can finally buy these affordable housing will not be the poorest households in the city, but a special group. , that is, civil servants. A large part of the affordable housing will be converted into welfare housing for civil servants. Everyone above the director level will have a share. This is also a need for maintaining stability.

"They are the specific implementers of the policy. Think about it, if they have a house in their hands, will they be willing to have housing prices fall? They are not in need, but now that they have welfare housing, what will happen? Their needs have been released. , I will definitely buy my second and third house next time.”

Mr. Han looked at Tan Shuzhen and said: "Dr. Tan, I'm sure that the demolition, shanty town renovation, and old city renovation will be further intensified in various places. Don't be surprised why on the one hand, there is regulation and control, and on the other hand, the local government is still vigorously demolishing , this is also their tried-and-tested magic weapon. Demand can be extracted, and the demand extracted can ensure that housing prices do not fall.

"Dr. Tan, the outcome has been decided. You took a step early. You are right. You took the right step. Although housing prices in second- and third-tier cities and the county level below are currently very low, you can rest assured that this is only a temporary phenomenon, and , you can also lead the local price, why not? When your house price in Hangzhou was a few thousand, Taohuayuan dared to sell it for 20,000, why don't you dare now?

"The market is also developing in a step-by-step manner. Don't worry about demand and housing prices in second- and third-tier cities. Let's take the simplest example. For example, if a person from Baoding has some money in his pocket, when he wants to buy a house, where will he buy it? It won't be Baoding. It won't be Shijiazhuang, but Beijing. Isn't Beijing a few thousand square meters? He must go to Beijing to buy it.

"But when the house price in Beijing reached tens of thousands per square meter, he couldn't afford it or was reluctant to buy it, so he went to buy one in Shijiazhuang. When the house in Shijiazhuang cost over ten thousand yuan, he would buy one in Baoding. That's it, high-end residents in first-tier cities Housing prices will eventually force out the purchasing power of second- and third-tier cities and push up their housing prices.

"Also, in places like Zhejiang and Guangdong, the private economy is developed. The economic scale of one of your counties is equivalent to that of a third-tier city in the mainland. Therefore, counties like Zhejiang and Guangdong cannot be treated as counties. We should treat it as a second- and third-tier city. In the future, housing prices in these places will not be lower than those in second- and third-tier cities. Where is the demand?

"Demand is what determines everything, whether it is steel demand or investment demand. Moreover, in your counties, the investment demand may be higher than that of second- and third-tier cities. As I said before, investment demand is for Housing prices are the most resistant.

"Also, in terms of human nature, investing in real estate is like taking drugs. Now if you, Mr. Tan, are asked to do other industries, you will definitely not do it. It's not that you can't do it, but you don't like it, right? "

Tan Shuzhen laughed, this is self-evident.

"The same is true for people who invest in real estate. Once he invests in real estate, it is difficult for him to invest in other properties. He will just keep buying houses, which creates more demand." Mr. Han said.

Thank you to my forty-eight-year-old, book friend 20210408164455656, two fishes, and the reward at three o'clock in the middle of the night! Thank you for Xiao Sheng Nian Fang 48, Tiezhong Shang 1, and the monthly tickets specially for Cao Xiaomin, Gu Chan, Li Ruijin, Book Friends 20170503152610463, Xiaosian Zeibao, Yuanxi, End丶Hao, CYTYP, Book Friends 20171119234219749! Thanks for all the votes and reading! I wish you all good health!